摘要
尝试了将变分技术应用于统计预报方法中,并以兰州地区1999年9～11月最高温度MOS预报为例进行了试验。结果表明,经过最新大气实况观测资料修正的MOS方程可以改善其预报效果,其改善程度与方程本身的预报能力有关。为了进一步说明问题,文中还提出了一个新的概念方程预报水平。在此基础上发现了一个新的现象,即用本文提出的方法对MOS方程优化,其方程预报水平是稳定的。
This paper try to apply the variational technic to the statistical forecast field and some experimentsare performed with MOS equations of the highest temperature in Lanzhou city during Septemberto November 1999. The results show that the new method can improve the forecast and the results are related to MOS forecast ability. To explain it more, we propose a new concept, model skill(MS), and find that MS is steady for all forecast time when having optimized the MOS equations with the new method.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第2期127-131,共5页
Plateau Meteorology
