摘要
北京SARS疫情的公布数据表明 ,4月下旬以来 ,确诊病例的相对增加率随累计确诊病例数的增加而下降 .假设这是一个线性关系 ,并且一直持续下去 ,我们发现疫情走势是一个反转的Fermi-Dirac分布 ,根据现有的公布数据可以预期北京平均每日新增病例数将在 5月中旬下降到 5 0人以下 ,在 5月下旬下降到 1 0人以下 ,在 6月上旬下降到 1人左右 ,疫情可望在 6月中得到控制 ,最后的累计病例总数约为
It is shown from the data of SARS in Beijing that, since late April, the relative rate of increase in the number of cases decreases continually as the cumulative number of patients increases. By assuming that this is a linear decrease, it can be found that the number of patients as a function of time is a reverse Fermi\|Dirac distribution. Based on the data to date, it can be expected that the SARS epidemic in Beijing will be controlled by the middle of June, and the total number of cases will finally be around three thousand.
出处
《物理》
CAS
北大核心
2003年第5期341-344,共4页
Physics
