摘要
利用国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中的21个气候模式的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景预估结果,分析了全球变暖1.5℃和2℃阈值时青藏高原气温年和季节的变化特征。结果表明,对应1.5℃和2℃全球变暖,青藏高原变暖幅度明显更大,就整体而言,在RCP4.5/RCP8.5情景下,高原区域平均的平均、最高、最低气温变暖分别为2.11℃/2.10℃和2.96℃/2.85℃、2.02℃/2.02℃和2.89℃/2.77℃、2.34℃/2.34℃和3.20℃/3.14℃,冬季平均气温的变暖幅度(2.19℃/2.31℃和3.13℃/3.05℃)较其他季节更大;从空间分布形势上看,年变暖呈西南高东北低的分布,而春、冬变暖呈南高北低的分布,夏、秋变暖则呈西高东低的分布。到达同一温升阈值时,RCP4.5与RCP8.5情景下高原气温的响应也存在区域差异。高原年与各季平均气温对全球变暖1.5℃与2℃的响应差异均>0.5℃,其中冬季最明显,区域平均差异可达0.94℃,局地差异超过1.1℃。
Based on the predicted results of 21 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the annual and seasonal variation characteristics of temperature were analyzed over the Tibetan Plateau(TP hereafter) at global warming threshold of 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃. The results show that, when global warming reaches 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃, the warming of the TP are both more notable than global warming. The annual warming is high both in the west and southwest but low in the northeast, while spring warming and winter warming are high in the south but low in the north, and summer warming and autumn warming are both high in the west but low in the east from the spatial distribution, respectively. The increase of mean, maximum and minimum temperature is 2.11℃/2.10 ℃ and 2.96 ℃/2.85 ℃, 2.02 ℃/2.02 ℃ and 2.89 ℃/2.77 ℃, 2.34 ℃/2.34 ℃ and 3.20 ℃/3.14 ℃ over the TP under RCP4.5/RCP8.5 scenario when the global warming reaches 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃, respectively. Besides, the winter warming over the TP(2.19 ℃/2.31 ℃ and 3.13 ℃/3.05 ℃) is more remarkable than that of other seasons. There are also regional differences in temperature response at the same warming threshold over the TP under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The differences of annual and seasonal mean temperature between the two periods when global warming reaches 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ under two scenarios all exceed 0.5 ℃, with regional and seasonal differences.
作者
吴芳营
游庆龙
谢文欣
张玲
WU Fang-Ying;YOU Qing-Long;XIE Wen-Xin;ZHANG Ling(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST),Nanjing 210044,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China)
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期130-139,共10页
Climate Change Research
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603804)
国家自然科学基金项目(41771069)
