摘要
根据杨树溃疡病的发生规律,在测报期间内,病情指数(Dis)与相应时期的菌量(F_1、F_2、F_3)、积温(CT)、温湿比(TH)、温雨比(TR)及湿雨比(HR)有着密切的相关关系。应用多元统计方法建立的多元线性回归预测模型:Dis=19.0-2.8(F_3)^(1/2)+0.1F_1+0.0015(F_2)~3+4.15TH-0.042(CT)^(1/2)-0.4HR+3.5TR,可以预测一个月后的发病情况,模型经实际病情验证,有较高的准确性。
According to the rules of development of poplar canker, caused by Dothiorella gregaria Sacc., the multivariant linear stepwise regression prediction model was established using method of multivatiant statistics with factors as disease index (Dis), pathogens (F_1, F_2, F_3), collect temperature(CT), ratio of temperature to relative humidity (TH), ratio of temperature to raina ll(TR) and ratio of relative humidity to rainfall (HR):
Dis=19.0-F_3^(1/2.8)+0.1F_1+0.0015(F_2)~3+4.15TH-CT^(1/0.042)-0.4HR+1.5TR.
The disease index of the following a month could be predicted with this equation what was proved to be reliable by examination using actual disease index obtained in the survey.
出处
《林业科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1992年第2期122-127,共6页
Scientia Silvae Sinicae
基金
国家"七.五"科技攻关专题
关键词
杨树
溃疡病
预测
Poplar canker
Forecast
Multivariant linear stepwise model
