摘要
在构建农业增长质量综合评价指标体系的基础上,采用"纵横向"拉开档次法对2000年~2015年中国30个省份的农业增长质量进行综合评价,分析农业增长质量的时空特征,进一步采用核密度估计方法和马尔可夫链模型,探讨中国农业增长质量的动态演进规律。研究结果表明:(1)样本期内,农业增长质量呈稳步上升态势,农业增长质量的变异系数大致呈"M"型变化趋势,农业增长质量的空间分布具有典型的区域特征,呈现"东高西低"的格局。(2)从全国范围来看,农业增长质量的核密度曲线不断向右移动,且波峰高度持续降低,波峰形态均不同程度地呈现右偏,但随着时间的推移,右偏程度有减弱趋势;分地区来看,东部地区农业增长质量的核密度曲线由双峰分布形式逐步演变为单峰分布形式,而中、西部地区的农业增长质量核密度曲线大体表现为单峰分布形式。(3) 中国农业增长质量分布状态具有较高的稳定性,其动态演进是一个平滑的过程,很难实现跨越式发展; 中国农业增长的动态演进过程存在"马太效应",但随着考察时长的增加,"马太效应"有减弱迹象。
Based on constructing the comprehensive evaluation index system of quality of agricultural growth,the paper evaluates the quality of agricultural growth in 30 provinces of China from 2000 to 2015 by employing the method of "vertical and horizontal "scatter degree,and then analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics of quality of agricultural growth. It further discusses the rule of dynamic evolution of quality of agricultural growth using Kernel density estimate method and Markov chain model. The results show as follows:( 1) The quality of agricultural growth presents a steady upward trend,with the variation coefficient being roughly "M"type; furthermore,the spatial distribution of agricultural growth quality has a typical regional feature,which presents the spatial distribution pattern of east high and west low.( 2) From the nationwide,the kernel density curve of the agricultural growth quality is constantly moving to the right,in the meantime,the crest height continues to decrease,and the crest shape shows different degrees of right deviation. In addition,the degree of right deviation has weakened as time passes; from the sub-regions,in the eastern region,the kernel density curve of agricultural growth quality gradually evolves from a bimodal distribution to a unimodal distribution,but in the central and western regions,it always shows a unimodal distribution.( 3) The distribution of agricultural growth quality has a high stability,the dynamic evolution of which is a smooth process,so it is difficult to leap forward in the development of agricultural growth quality.Moreover,there exists a Matthew effect in the dynamic evolution of agricultural economic growth,but it is gradually weakening for the Matthew effect with increasing the sample period.
出处
《广东财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期95-105,共11页
Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14BTJ014)
国家自然科学基金项目(71473100
71461010701)
关键词
农业增长
农业增长质量
经济增长质量
综合评价指标体系
核密度估计
马尔可夫链模型
agricultural growth
agricultural growth quality
quality of economic growth
comprehensive evaluation index system
kernel density estimate method
Markov chain model
