摘要
土地覆被和气候变化是影响流域水资源宏观调控以及合理规划的两个主要因素,以锡林河流域为研究区,借助锡林浩特及周边4个国家气象站点,通过设定情景模式与SWAT模型相结合的方法分别对其进行了分析研究。通过极端土地利用法对研究区内土地利用/覆被设定不同情景模式,研究了土地利用/覆被变化对径流量的影响,另外采用最新的气候模式CMIP5的两种RCP排放情景RCP4.5和RCP8.5,预测了未来气温、降水、径流的变化情形。结果表明:土地变化对径流量的年际变化影响较弱,但对于汛期径流量影响显著;研究区径流量对气候表现敏感程度非常显著,未来最低、最高气温均表现出增温趋势且未来降水、径流变化趋势基本保持一致,呈增长趋势。
Land cover and climate change are two main factors that affect the macro-control and reasonable planning of water resources in the river basin. Xilinhe River Basin was used as a research area, and Xilinhot and its four national meteorological stations were used to set the scenario model and SWAT model. The combined method was used to analyze and study separately. Through the extreme land use method, different scenarios for land use/coverage in the study area were set up to study the impact of land use/climate change on the runoff. In addition, the latest two RCP emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of climate model CMIP5 were used to predict future changes in temperature, precipitation, and runoff. The following research results are obtained. Land change had weaker impact on inter-annual change of runoff, but it had significant impact on runoff during flood season;runoff in the study area was very sensitive to climate change, and future minimum and maximum temperatures show warming trends. The future trends of precipitation and runoff remain basically the same, showing the increasing trend.
作者
韩冬冬
朱仲元
宋小园
郝祥云
刘丹丹
王慧敏
王飞
HAN Dongdong;ZHU Zhongyuan;SONG Xiaoyuan;HAO Xiangyun;LIU DANDan;WANG Huimin;WANG Fei(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agriculture University,Hohhot 010018,China;College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Linyi University,Linyi,Shandong276000,China)
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期153-160,共8页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金(51669018
51779116)
