摘要
孑遗植物水杉(Metasequoia glyptostroboides)为我国特有裸子植物,国家一级保护植物。水杉野生种群仅在湖南、湖北和重庆交界之处分布。目前,虽然水杉在全球广泛栽培,但栽培水杉不能自然更新,而野生种群也存在自然更新不良、种群衰退现象。在未来气候变化条件下,水杉种群可能面临更加严峻的灭绝风险。因此,本研究根据文献和标本记载的水杉野生分布记录评估了未来气候变化对野生水杉分布的影响。采用多种物种分布模型,估计了当前气候条件下野生水杉的潜在分布分区,同时采用3种大气环流模型(CCSM4、CNRM-CM5、HadGEM2-ES)模拟的气候数据,估计了两种典型温室气体浓度增加情景下未来(2070年)野生水杉的适宜分布区。结果表明,当前气候条件下,水杉野生种群的潜在分布区与实际分布区一致,集中在湖北、重庆、湖南和贵州的交界处。到2070年,在不同的温室气体浓度增加情景下,我国水杉的潜在分布区有向现分布区的西北部迁移的倾向,但生境适宜度非常低(<0.5),成功迁移可能性极低。而现有野生分布区的适宜度也明显下降,潜在分布区消失殆尽,水杉原始种群保护工作可能面临严峻考验。
The relict gymnosperm species,Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu&Cheng(dawn redwoods),is a well-known example of living fossil.It is an endangered,endemic and a national key protected species of China.Its wild populations survive only in the border region of Hunan,Hubei provinces and the Chongqing municipality in south-central China.Although it has been widely cultivated worldwide,the cultivated populations are incapable of regenerating naturally.The wild populations are facing rapid population decline due to reduced natural regeneration.Therefore,the human-induced climate change is likely to increase the extinction risk of M.glyptostroboides.To explore the effects of climate change on M.glyptostroboides,we established the species distribution models using its wild distribution records and current climatic data.Using these models,we predicted its future distributions based on the climate data simulated by three global circulation models(CCSM4,CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES).Our results show that the current potential suitable habitats for M.glyptostroboides are mainly the adjacent areas of Hubei,Chongqing,Hunan and Guizhou,which is consistent with its actual distribution area.The wild population of M.glyptostroboides will shift northwest to the present distribution area in the future(2070 s)under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios,but with lower habitat suitability(<0.5).Our findings suggest a dramatic decline in the suitable habitats of M.glyptostroboides and this may likely wipe out its wild populations entirely in the near future.Our results suggest that climate change may threaten the wild populations of M.glyptostroboides.
作者
朱莹莹
徐晓婷
ZHU Ying-ying;XU Xiao-ting(Key Laboratory of Bio-resource and Eco-environment of Ministry of Education,College of Life Sciences,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期1629-1636,共8页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费(YJ201721)资助
关键词
水杉
物种分布模型
气候变化
BIOMOD2
Metasequoia glyptostroboides
species distribution model
climatic change
BIOMOD2
