摘要
利用近1000年的太阳黑子周期长度(SCL)和自1920年以来的大气CO2浓度,以及1935—2000年青藏铁路沿线平均气温序列,在其距平值概率分布计算的基础上,研究了未来50～100年青藏铁路沿线平均气温变化趋势的概率。结果表明:SCL正距平出现的频数大于负距平的频数;CO2浓度的负距平出现的频数明显大于正距平的频数;青藏铁路沿线平均年气温正距平出现的频数略小于负距平的。作为试验,利用REEP方法将预测的2001—2100年青藏铁路沿线平均年气温相对于1990年代的增温概率进行了分析,表明青藏铁路沿线平均年气温到2050年升高0.5℃的概率为0.64～0.73;到2100年上升1.0℃左右的概率为0.45～0.64。
The air temperature series of annual average along Qinghai\|Xizang railway reconstructed in reference\ ranged from 1935 to 2000, thousand year SCL and the concentration of CO2 during 1920 to 2000 were analysed, the results showed that the frequency of positive air temperature anomaly was a little bit more than the negative one along Qinghai\|Xizang railway, and the frequency of positive SCL anomaly was more than the negative one. But the frequency of nagetive anomaly of CO2was much higherthan the positive one. As an experiment, using the REEP method, the increasing temperature probability along Qinghai\|Xizang railway was analyzed comparing with 1990s on the basis of the predicted decadal average temperature. The results showed that the probability of increasing air temperature about 0.5℃ in 2050 is 0.64～0.73, and that about 1.0℃ in 2100 is 0.45～0.64.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第5期495-498,共4页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目"青藏铁路工程与多年冻土相互作用及其环境效应"(KZCX1 SW 04)资助
关键词
青藏铁路沿线
年平均气温
超长期气候变化
概率预测
Qinghai-Xizang railway
Annual average air temperature
Extra long-range climatic variation
Probability prediction
