摘要
国家间的政治冲突是否会对两国的贸易往来造成影响?本文就已有理论与实证研究进行了回顾。对于国家间政治冲突为何会影响贸易,如何影响,已有文献提供了以下几方面解释:贸易对国家安全具有外部性;贸易限制是国家在冲突中表明坚决立场的高成本信号;国家关系是国家、企业或消费者效用中的一部分;冲突通过影响交通、市场运行等直接增加了贸易成本;冲突带来合同风险的上升。未来冲突的不确定性会使贸易参与者在政治冲击发生前就做出反应,贸易关系中的沉没成本使得贸易参与者在政治冲击发生时倾向于不做出反应。已有实证研究发现,战争、军事冲突、领土争端等不同类型的冲突会带来贸易的降低,贸易也与构建的冲突——合作程度指标相关。重大战争会对贸易有长期影响,且可能降低与第三国的贸易。最新研究基于部门或企业层面数据,涉及产品战略安全性、国家控制、消费者抵制等不同影响渠道。本文利用清华大学构建的中国与大国关系数据库,对1950一2011年中国与7个大国政治关系对贸易影响进行了初步分析,结果发现,政治关系对中国与大国间的贸易有显著影响,中国与该国政治关系越好(越差),则与该国的贸易往来越多(越少)。对于政治关系在什么条件下影响贸易,主要通过什么渠道影响,以及贸易对政治关系变化的调整可能存在的短期性,还有待未来研究进一步探索。
Does international political conflicts affect bilateral trade flows? This paper provides a review of existing theoretical and empirical studies on this question.There are several explanations in the literature on why and how cross-nation political conflicts affect trade:trade has externalities on national security;trade restriction serves as a high-cost signal revealing of the country during conflict resolution;political relation is part of the utility of the government,consumers and firms;conflicts increase trade costs by affecting transportation or functioning of the markets;interstate conflicts bring about contract risks.Actors have incentive to reduce trade ex ante due to uncertainty on future conflicts and sunk costs can prevent them from responding to political conflicts.Existing empirical studies show that wars,military conflicts,territory disputes and other types of conflicts reduce trade flows between the states in conflict and trade is also found associated with conflict-cooperation index constructed by scholars.Major wars can have long-term effect on trade and can also reduce trade with third countries.Recent studies based on industry or firm level data investigate the channels including strategic commodities,state control and consumer boycotts.By using'China's Foreign Relations with Major Powers' dataset from Tsinghua University,this paper analyses the effect of foreign relations on trade between China and seven major powers from 1950 to 2011.The results show that when political relation between China and the major power gets friendlier(or more hostile),there will be more(or less) trade flows between them.The condition and the channels under which political relations affect trade,as well as the possibility that trade reacts to political relation changes in a short-term manner are left for future research.
出处
《经济学报》
2015年第1期124-144,共21页
China Journal of Economics
