摘要
敏捷供应链系统中实体间协作关系的存在,使系统内的物资流、信息流、资金流的不规则变动得到有效减少,但同时也增强了实体间相互的依赖性和协作过程中的风险。不确定因素导致的市场变动,使得系统中各实体需要根据不确定因素的特点,对收益、损失等方面进行估计,尽可能地降低不确定因素对系统整体目标的影响。然而,一些不确定因素表现为不可预测的变动,带有风险的特征。目前,分析敏捷供应链中实体间协作的难点在于建立统一的风险量化模型。本文从处理这类不可预测的变动过程的目的出发,对系统实体间的协作关系中的不确定性,按照不同环节进行建模和分析。同时,给出计算这类不确定性因素所带来的收益与损失的分配方法,其结果在理论上对系统中实体间的收益与损失的分摊起指导作用。
The cooperation among the entities in agile supply chain reduces the anomalies that occur in material flow, information flow or financing flow. But the cooperation also increases the interdependence among the entities as well as the cooperating risks.Due to the market volatility caused by uncertainties, one of the most challenging problems of these entities in the system is how to estimate the impact of those uncertainties on the system goal. Some uncertainties take on a risky look and their influence on the gain or loss of system is difficult to describe quantitatively. In this paper, the risk models for entities and the whole cooperation system of the agile supply chain are developed, aiming at handling the risky processes. The models are presented according to the position that cooperation exists in the agile supply chain. Accompanied the risk models, a method to compute the gain and loss of cooperation coming from the uncertainties is also presented. The results can be used as a guide for assigning the gain and loss among entities in a practical system.
基金
国家863/CIMS主题资助项目(2001AA4141230)。~~
关键词
敏捷供应链
风险
实体
协作
agile supply chain
risk
entity
cooperation
