摘要
河北省2002年粮食作物播种面积为6484.4千hm2,其中小麦占37.8%,玉米39.7%;粮食、棉花、油料的种植比例为15.9:1.0:1.6。北部四地市粮食播面占全省的23.3%,南部七地市76.7%。2002年粮食总产2435.8万t,为1949年的5.2倍;粮食单产3756kg/hm2,为1949年的5.8倍;人均粮食362kg,为1949年的2.4倍。北部地区粮食总产占全省的17.2%,南部地区82.8%。据回归分析与双向差分建模分析,2010年粮食总产可达3087.5万t,粮食单产4478kg/hm2,人均粮食460kg。据灰关联分析,影响粮食总产的主要因子有:粮食单产、农副产品收购价格总指数(1978年=100)、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、农田化肥施用量与有效灌溉面积等。根据笔者预测,若2010年农业机械总动力达8989万kw,农村用电量240.8亿kwh,农田化肥施用量356.1万t,有效灌面4549.2千hm2,则其粮食单产可达4664kg/hm2;若2010年仍保持2000年小麦播面所占比例(0.387),玉米播面所占比例达0.439,则其单产可达4387kg/hm2。
The sown area of grain crops was 6484.4×103 hectares, in which the rate was 37.8% for wheat, 39.7% for maize, and the proportion among grain, cotton and oil crops was 15.9:1.0:1.6 in Hebei Province in 2002. The rate of the sown area of grain between the region and the province was 23.3% for the North Hebei Area, and 76.7% for the South Hebei Area in 2002. The ratio between the level in 2002 and in 1949 was 5.2 for the total yield of grain, which was 2435.8×104 tons in 2002; 5.8 for the per unit area yield of grain, which was 3756 kg per hectare in 2002; 2.4 for the per capita yield of grain, which was 362 kg in 2002. The rate of grain total yield between the region and the province was 17.2% for the North Hebei Area, and 82.8% for the South Hebei Area in 2002. According to the regression analysis and the bilateral difference modelling analysis, the grain yield in 2010 will be 3087.5×104 tons for the total yield, 4478 kg per hectare for the per unit area yield, and 460 kg for the per capita yield. On the basis of the gray relational analysis, the main factors affecting total yield of grain are: the per unit area yield, the general purchasing price index of farm produce and sideline products, the total power of agricultural machinery, the electricity consumed in rural area, the consumption of chemical fertilizer in farmland, and the effective irrigated area. According to our estimation, if the total power of agricultural machinery is 8989×104kw, the electricity is consumed 240.8×108kwh, the consumption of chemical fertilizer 356.1×104 tons, and the effective irrigated is area 4549.2×103 hectares in 2010, the per unit area yield of grain will be 4664 kg per hectare; if the rate of the sown area is 0.387 for wheat, and 0.439 for maize, the per unit area yield will be 4387 kg per hectare.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第5期499-506,共8页
Progress in Geography
