摘要
本文通过对2000年沪深交易所出现的48家首亏公司的财务数据进行Logistic统计分析,分别用未作调整的财务指标建立了预警模型A,用剔出盈余管理影响后的财务指标建立了预警模型B。通过对这两个模型进行预测分析,分别得到72 73%和75 76%的正确率。由此可以证明通过调整财务指标的方法会在一定程度上提高模型预测的正确率,从而提高预警模型的应用价值。
We carry through Logistics' statistical analysis for the financial data of 48 initial deficit companies in Hu & Shen exchanges in 2000,and separately establish forecasting model A by the initially financial ratios and forecasting model B with the financial ratios that have winkled the influence of earnings management. We apply the two models to get partly the exactness rates of 7273% and 7576%. So we prove that we can enhance the exactness of model by the means of adjusting the financial ratios,and consequently increase the application value of model.
