摘要
根据马莲河流域地形地貌特点、水资源分布状况及社会经济、能源产业的发展情况,将流域系统概化为5个水资源分区,并依据2020和2030年的社会经济发展速度和水利工程建设速度、分为12个方案,采用指标分析法对12个方案进行供、需水量预测。结果表明:2020年最大概率方案为社会经济高速发展、水利工程低速建设方案,流域总需水量6.45亿m3,供水量4.67亿m3,缺水率27.56%。2030年的最优方案为2020年社会经济高速发展、2030年社会经济低速发展,水利工程高速建设方案,流域总需水量10.33亿m3,供水量8.72亿m3,缺水率15.62%。按照供需平衡方案进行水资源分配,可促使流域综合缺水率逐年减少,促使流域的水资源能够更好地为高速发展的社会经济服务,从而提高流域的供水、用水水平,为流域生产、生活安全提供强有力的保障和支撑。
According to the characteristics of landforms ,distribution situation of water resource , society e-conomy and development state of energy industry in Malian river basin ,the paper generalized the basin in-to 5 water resource partitions .Then it formed 12 plans according to the development speed of society econ-omy and the construction speed of water conservancy project in 2020 and 2030 .It predicted the quantities of water supply and demand of 12 plans by use of indicators analysis .The analysis indicated that the maxi-mum probability plan in 2020 is the program that social economy is quickly developed and water conser-vancy projects is slowlly constructed .The total amount of water requirement and supply is 645 million and 467 million cubic meter .The water shortage rate is 27 .56%.In 2030 , the maximum probability plan will be the program of social economy with high-speed development in 2020 and with low-speed development in 2030 ,and water conservancy projects with high-speed construction .The total amount of water require-ment and supply is 1033 and 872 million cubic meter ,and water shortage rate is 15 .62%.The allocation scheme of water resources according to supply and demand balance can decrease the integrated water shortage rate year after year and impel the water resource of basin to better service for the socio-economic high-speed development , and improve the level of water supply and water use .The result can provide strong protection and support for production and life safety in the basin .
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2014年第6期169-175,共7页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
甘肃省水利厅水资源费项目(甘财农[2010]162)
甘肃省科技厅重大专项课题(1203FKDA035)
甘肃省科技支撑计划(1204NKCA087)
关键词
供、需水量预测
水资源供需平衡分析
指标分析法
专家咨询概率法
马莲河流域
forecast of water supply and demand
balance analysis of water resources supply and demand
indicator analysis method
expert advisory probabilistic method
Malian river basin
