摘要
本文以GIS、SPSS等技术为支撑,改进PSR模型对研究区域2007~2016年的土地生态安全进行评价,通过G(1,1)模型预测未来5年梵净山旅游经济区的土地生态安全。研究结果表明:改进PSR模型能够实现对研究区域土地生态安全的评价。研究区域2007~2011年土地生态安全属于临界安全,2012~2016属于较安全。利用SPSS将各评价指标与综合指数进行主成分相关性分析,得到与土地生态安全综合指数相关性较高的正向指标和负向指标。根据预测2017年区域耕地生态安全综合指数为0.757,2017~2020年生态安全水平将稳步增长,年均增长率为8.3%,安全等级从较安全级到安全级。本文的研究有一定的可靠性、客观性,对梵净山旅游经济区未来土地开发与利用方向的确定具有指导意义,并能为同类型山地旅游经济区的生态安全诊断提供切实有效有段。
Based on the technologies of GIS and SPSS,this paper improves the PSR model to evaluate the land ecological security of the study area from 2007 to 2016,and predicts the land ecological security of the Fanjingshan tourism economic zone in the next 5 years by G(1,1)model.The results show that:The improved PSR model can evaluate the land ecological security in the study area.The land ecological security in the study area during of 2007-2011 is criticality safety,and becomes less safter during 2012-2016.Using principal component analysis of each evaluation index and comprehensive index by SPSS,the positive index and negative index with higher correlation with the comprehensive index of ecological security of the land were obtained.According to the prediction that the comprehensive index of arable land ecological security in 2017 will be 0.757 5,the ecological safety level will steadily increase from 2017 to 2020,with an average annual growth rate of 8.3%.The security level becomes safety from less safer.The research in this paper has certain reliability and objectivity,which is instructive for the future development and utilization of the land in Fanjingshan Tourism Economic Zone,and can provide an effective and effective method for the ecological safety diagnosis of the same type of mountain tourism economic zone.
关键词
土地生态安全
改进PSR模型
山地旅游经济区
land ecological security
improved PSR model
mountain tourism economic zone
