摘要
中国实用的短期负荷预测系统普遍采用的是综合预测模型机制。文中深入研究了该机制的实现和应用原理,针对其权重不等式约束、求解方案实用化方面进行了深入探讨,提出了“最优拟合模型”不等于“最优预测模型”的观点。对该观点进行了详细的论证。在此基础上,提出了“较优预测模型”的实现策略,并以实例证实该模型提高了负荷预测的准确率和误差稳定性。
An integrated model is usually used in a short-term load forecasting system in China. To build an accurate forecasting model, the bound of each method's weight is broadened in this paper. Based on the discussion on several ways to implement this model, an optimal forecasting model is theoretically classified from an optimal imitating model. A method to build a quasi-optimal model is proposed. Numerical tests are carried out to verify the efficiency of the model.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第1期30-34,共5页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金(50107005)
