摘要
目的 对全国肾综合征出血热 (HFRS)流行进行影响因素的相关性研究 ,找出符合我国地理特点多样性的不同疫区影响HFRS流行的因素和指标。方法 对 1984～ 2 0 0 0年全国 19个不同HFRS疫区提供的宿主动物监测资料、气象和农业等原始资料进行分类汇总 ,采用秩相关统计方法进行分析。结果 经检验 ,年平均气温与年发病率呈负相关 ;年平均湿度与年发病率呈正相关 ;年降雨量与年发病率的相关系数较高 ,部分南方监测点的年降雨量与年发病率的相关系数呈明显的负相关 ,北方地区的监测点则呈正相关 ,并且下半年降雨量与同期人群发病率及与全年人群发病率呈正相关 ;农作物的面积和产量与HFRS发病率呈正相关 ;当月鼠密度、带病毒鼠指数与人群当月发病率、翌月发病率和隔月发病率均呈正相关性。结论 上述因素与HFRS疫情的相关性虽有一定的显著性意义但相关系数不是很高 ,不宜构建多因素回归方程以进行HFRS疫情的预报预测 ,但其对HFRS疫情的影响是显而易见的 ,为各地进一步开展HFRS的防制及流行趋势预测的研究提供参考。
Objective To study the effect of different factors on the epidemic characteristics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) in different epidemic geography areas in China. Methods The data of surveillance on reservoir animals, weather and agriculture from 19 different surveillance areas of HFRS in China from 1984 to 2000 were analyzed with rank correlation. Results Through the test, the following paired-index showed significance: Relationship between average air temperature and HFRS incidence rate was negative correlation during the whole year; Relationship between average degree of wetness and HFRS incidence rate was positive correlation during the whole year; Correlation coefficient between rainfall and HFRS incidence rate was high during the whole year. There was negative correlation in parts of south China, but positive in parts of north China. Relationship between rainfall in the latter half of the year and HFRS incidence rate in the latter half of the year or in the whole year were positive correlation; Relationship between area and the yield of crop and HFRS incidence rate was positive correlation; Relationship between density of rats or index of HV carrier and HFRS incidence rate was positive correlation in the whole month, in both the next month and the third month. Conclusion The significant correlation coefficients between factors and HFRS incidence rate were not very high, therefore it is difficult for us to set up multiple linear regression to predict HFRS trend with them, but their influence on the epidemic of HFRS is obviously, could be referred to control and prevention of HFRS and to the prediction the epidemic tendency of HFRS.
出处
《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2003年第6期451-454,共4页
Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control
关键词
肾综合征出血热
流行因素
宿主动物
监测
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
Correlation
Air temperature
Humidity
Area and yield of Crop
Index of HV carrier
