摘要
气候变化对生物多样性的影响及其适应性直接关系着生物多样性保护的成效,预测未来气候变化条件下受威胁物种适宜生境的空间变化趋势对生物多样性保护具有重要的理论和实践意义.本文选取我国特有濒危植物翅果油树为研究对象,在区域尺度上预测气候变化条件下的物种适宜分布区,进而通过空间分析模拟不同气候变化情景下其适宜分布区的空间变化和迁移趋势.最大熵(Maxent)物种分布模型预测结果显示:翅果油树的两个适宜分布区在未来气候变化情景下呈现不同的迁移趋势,吕梁山适生区呈现出纬度方向上的轻微波动,而中条山适生区则呈现出向高海拔地区迁移的趋势.适生区空间格局变化分析表明,翅果油树当前适生区的边界存在明显变化区域,包括新增适生区(零星分布在两个适生区的边缘地带,新增率为9.1%～20.9%)和丧失适生区(集中分布在吕梁山适生区北缘和中条山适生区东南部,丧失率为16.4%～31.2%),且两者对气候变化的响应较为敏感.利用分类统计工具Zonal计算得出,在未来气候变化条件下吕梁山适生区的中心点呈现向南迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为7.451 km;中条山适生区的中心点则呈现出向西北迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为8.284 km.表明山西翅果油树的分布对气候变化的响应较为剧烈.
The impacts of climate change on biodiversity and its adaptation will directly affect the efficiency of biodiversity conservation. Predicting spatial variation of suitable habitats of threatened species under future climate change has important theoretical and practical significance for biodiversity conservation. In this study,we predicted the suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis,an endemic endangered plant in China,under climate change at regional scales. Then,we simulated the spatial variation and migration tend of suitable distribution under different climate change scenarios by spatial analysis. The results from Maxent model showed that the two suitable distribution areas of E. mollis presented different migration trends under the future climate change scenarios: the suitable areas of Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction,while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate to high elevation. Analysis of the spatial pattern change of the suitable areas indicated that the areas with obvious change occurred at the boundary of the suitable areas of E.mollis,including new suitable area and lost suitable area. The new suitable areas were scattered in the marginal of the original,with the increase rate of 9.1% to 20.9%,and the lost suitable areas were concentrated in the northern Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas and the southeast Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas,with the loss rate of 16.4% to 31.1%. These regions were more sensitive to climate change. Using the classification statistical tool of Zonal,we found that the central points of the Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas showed southward migration trend under the future climate change,with the maximum migration distance of 7.451 km,while the center point of the Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas showed migration trend to the northwest,with the maximum migration distance of 8.284 km. Our results indicated that the response of E. mollis distribution in Shanxi to climate change was intense.
作者
张殷波
刘彦岚
秦浩
孟庆欣
ZHANG Yin-bo;LIU Yan-lan;QIN Hao;MENG Qing-xin(Department of Environment and Resources,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;School of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance&Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期496-502,共7页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
山西省回国留学人员科研项目(2017-022)
山西省自然科学基金项目(2011011031-1)资助~~
