摘要
文章以江苏省原锡山市为研究区域,分析了1985年～2000年快速城镇化时期的城市化发展、土地利用变化(主要是指结构变化)的态势。对研究区域城市化发展主导下的土地利用变化的驱动机制,进行了理论上的机理分析,认为城镇化发展主要带来人口、经济的非农化及农业集约化的发展,这些影响都在土地利用上得到落实,并通过土地利用主体的行为实现区域土地利用变化。在这一分析的基础上选取了了土地利用变化驱动因素变量,同时尝试性的将各类用地变化率绝对值之和定义为衡量土地利用变化强度的标准,并构建了研究区域土地利用变化的驱动机制模型。通过机理分析和模型分析,得出研究区域1985年～2000年土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是经济、人口的增长和城市化水平的提高。文章还用边际分析的方法对原锡山市城市化发展的耕地资源边际占用倾向进行了相应的数量分析和预测,分析结果表明,该区域城市化水平提高所导致的耕地资源边际占用总体上呈递减趋势,不再因城市化水平提高而增加耕地占用的边界年份在2014年左右。
Taking the former Xishan city of Wuxi city as the case, this paper analyzed the progress of urbanization and land use change from 1985 to 2000. The driving mechanism of land use change has been analyzed theoretically. Based on the analysis, driving factors causing regional land use change have been selected, and the standard for weighing the intensity of land use change in study area was given. Then the mathematic model of the driving mechanism of land use change has been made. The results of theoretical and mathematic analysis both indicated that regional land use change was mainly affected by the economy development, the increase of population and the progress of urbanization. The marginal occupied tendency of cultivated land was analyzed with regional urbanization by marginal analysis. The result showed that the deadline of cultivated land decreasing would be about in 2014, which meaned that from 2014 cultivated land area would not be occupied because of the progress of urbanization in the study area.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第1期22-30,共9页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40101007)
国土资源部重点科技项目(编号:20010102)。
关键词
快速城镇化
农村
土地利用变化
驱动机制
江苏
边际占用倾向
The former Xishan city
Intensity of land use change
Driving model
Marginal occupied tendency of cultivated land
