摘要
在小样本条件下,电力设备的运行可靠性参数难以精确获取,对其波动范围进行估计,可为电力系统运行提供更为客观、全面的评估与决策依据。由此,该文提出了一种基于信度网络(credal network,CN)的电力设备停运概率的非精确条件估计方法,对暴露型设备运行中条件相依的停运概率指标的区间范围进行估计。该方法基于设备停运的历史统计数据和估计目标时段的运行工况条件,构建了处理非精确条件概率推断问题的信度网络,并利用多状态随机变量的非精确狄利克雷模型(imprecise Dirichlet model,IDM),统计获得了设备停运样本信息缺乏条件下信度网络节点的非精确条件概率测度,进而采用信度网络推理算法,估计得到了给定运行工况条件下设备停运概率的区间范围。方法体现了电力设备运行可靠性参数依估计目标时段运行工况变化而时变的特点,为解决停运样本信息缺乏条件下的电力设备运行可靠性评估问题提供了新的思路。文章通过对实际投运于山东电网某地区的LGJ-300型架空输电线路停运概率的非精确条件估计,验证了文中方法的有效性。
By using limited outage samples, it is difficult to obtain the operational reliability indexes of power components accurately. Therefore, estimating the fluctuation ranges of the indexes can provide a more objective decision-making basis for power system operational risk control. In this paper, a novel approach was proposed to estimate the imprecise conditional outage probabilities of power components based on the credal network (CN), which could evaluate the interval ranges of conditional probabilities. Based on the historical outage statistics and the component operational conditions at the target period, a credal network, which used the imprecise Dirichlet model (IDM) to get the imprecise probabilistic dependencies, was set up to estimate the imprecise conditional outage probabilities. Therefore, the imprecise outage probabilities of components can be obtained by using the reasoning algorithm of the credal network. The proposed approach can reflect the variation of the conditional outage probabilities with respected to the operational conditions of the power components, and breaks a new way for the reliability assessment of power components with limited outage observations. Results on estimating the imprecise conditional outage probabilities of LGJ-300 transmission lines located in Shandong province illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. © 2016 Chin. Soc. for Elec. Eng.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第19期5134-5144,5394,共12页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
国家自然科学基金(51007047
51477091)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB228205)
国家电网公司科技项目(XT71-15-056)~~
