摘要
通过对我国焦煤供应和需求的各个环节进行分析,指出了我国焦煤资源的供需现状及发展形势。供应方面,在去产能和环保等政策的作用下我国焦煤供给逐年减少;需求方面,在粗钢生产增加的作用下需求增加,但未来一段时间较为疲软。我国焦煤供需形势从2015年之前的供大于求到近年的供应偏紧,在2019年将得到大幅缓解。2019年国内焦煤资源供给缺口缩小,经过周期性升降在2022年以后趋于稳定。此外,分析了焦煤资源价格影响因素,认为供需格局是影响价格的基本因素,政策因素通过影响供需基本面起作用,成本因素对价格起支撑作用,焦煤价格具有周期性且与PPI周期相匹配。
By analyzing the supply and demand of coking coal resources in China,this paper points out the supply and demand situation of coking coal resources in China.On the supply side,China’s coking coal resources supply has been decreasing year by year under the effect of policies such as cutting production capacity and environmental protection.On the demand side,with the increase of crude steel production,the demand increases,but it will be relatively weak in the future.China’s coking coal resources supply and demand situation from the oversupply before 2015 to the tight supply in recent years,and will be a significant relief in 2019.The supply gap of domestic coking coal resources will be narrowed considerably in 2019,and it will stabilize after cyclical rise and fall after 2022.In addition,the paper analyzes the factors affecting the price of coking coal resources,and puts forward the view that the supply and demand pattern is the basic factor affecting the price,policy play a role by influencing the supply and demand,cost play a supporting role in price,the price of coking coal is cyclical and matches the PPI cycle.
作者
张恒
王训练
ZHANG Heng;WANG Xunlian(School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2019年第4期1-6,共6页
China Mining Magazine
关键词
焦煤资源
供需格局
价格
影响因素
coking coal resource
pattern of supply and demand
price
influence factor
