摘要
对河南省1995-2010年粮食产量和农业用水现状进行分析,预测未来粮食产量以及农业用水的供需态势,提出河南省粮食安全的农业用水保障对策。结果表明,河南省近几年粮食产量的增加仍然依靠农业用水量的增长而获得,未来如果不采取节水措施,农业用水难以满足6500万t粮食产量的需求,在本文假设的两种情景下,届时缺口分别为23.9亿m3和44.7亿m3,保障程度分别为84.0和79.1%。同时,随外调粮食输出的水量约38.3亿m3,粮食外调加剧了河南省水资源的紧缺程度。为此提出以下建议:提高农业用水效率、设定农业用水红线、给予农业水资源适当的补偿、加强农田水利建设等。按照本文的初步估算,建议的农业用水红线为125亿m3。
This paper analyses the situation of food production and agricultural water use of Henan Province during 1995- 2010,the food production and agricultural water requirement and supply were predicted,then some countermeasures about agricultural water protection of food security was proposed. The results indicated that the food production increase still relie on the growth of the agricultural water consumption in recent years,in the future the agricultural water supply wiould not meet the demand of 65 million tons grain output if not take any water- saving measures,the amount of water shortage will reach 2. 39 billion cubic meters and 4. 47 billion cubic meters respectively in the two scenarios,the guarantee rates of agricultural water supply were 84. 0 % and 79. 1%,respectively,and there were about 3. 83 billion cubic meters of water quantity was output from this region with the grain export. Thus the water shortage severity was exacerbated,so some recommendations were put forward,such as to improve the efficiency of agricultural water use,to give appropriate agricultural water resources compensation,to strengthen water conservancy construction,to set agricultural water bottom line,etc. According to this paper the proposed agricultural water bottom line was around 12. 5 billion cubic meters.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第S1期114-118,共5页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(编号:2012ZX07501-001)
国家自然基金(编号:51079155)
关键词
粮食安全
农业用水
红线河南省
对策
food security
agricultural water use
bottom line of agricultural water use
countermeasures
