摘要
数据包络分析模型(DEA)是投入-产出运行效率的评价模型,因其运算无须任何权重假设,避免了很多主观因素,在效益评估方面被广泛应用。由于山洪灾害的形成受多种因素的影响,每一种因素又包含众多的表现形式,为避免和减少评价的主观因素,提升评价的客观性,以地形因子、水系因子、暴雨日指数、滑坡和泥石流密度、综合灾度作为海南岛山洪灾害危险性评指标,应用DEA模型,对海南岛山洪灾害的危险性大小进行排序,根据成灾效率进行了山洪灾害危险性的等级划分。通过与历史山洪灾害情的对比分析,结果表明:该方法应用于山洪灾害危险性评价是可行的。
Data Envelopment Analysis( DEA) model is an input-output efficiency evaluation model. Because its operation does not involve any weight hypothesis,many subjective factors are avoided,and so it has been widely used in efficiency evaluation. Because the formation of mountain flood disaster is influenced by many factors,and each factor contains many forms of expressions,to avoid and reduce the subjectivity of evaluation and promote the objectivity of evaluation,the DEA model is adopted to rank the hazard of mountain flood disasters in Hainan Island with topographic factor,water factor,rainstorm day index,landslide and debris flow density and comprehensive disaster degree as assessment indies. By contrast with the history mountain flood disaster,it is shown that,application of DEA method to the mountain flood disaster assessment is feasible.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期227-234,共8页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41175096
41265007)
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013M38)
海南省自然基金资助项目(409005)
华南区域气象中心科技攻关项目(GRMC2012M11)
关键词
数据包络分析模型
山洪灾害
危险性评价
data envelopment analysis(DEA)
mountain flood disasters
hazard assessment
