摘要
发生于四川省西部的"5·12"汶川大地震,给所处区域的旅游业带来了严重的影响。为了分析汶川地震对该区域旅游业的影响,本文在四川省和阿坝藏族羌族自治州这两个区域尺度上,运用灰色预测方法和灰色关联度方法,从旅游业总量指标、年度特征和季节特征三个方面进行了比较研究,结果表明:1汶川地震对两个区域旅游业影响的阶段可划分为四个时期:震前平稳发展期、震中急速下挫期、震后努力恢复期和恢复之后发展期,不同区域恢复期持续的时间不同,四川省为1年左右,而阿坝州为3年左右;2汶川地震对不同区域尺度受灾旅游目的地的影响存在差异,灾后1年内汶川地震造成四川省旅游业总收入减少186.94亿元,游客接待量减少1.84亿人次;灾后3年内阿坝州旅游业总收入减少114.62亿元,游客接待量减少0.13亿人次;3汶川地震对四川省旅游业的季节特征影响不大,而对阿坝州旅游业的季节特征影响显著,可见地震对小尺度区域旅游季节特征影响更明显,地震3年后阿坝州5月和6月的游客接待量明显增加,说明对地震灾害旅游资源的合理开发能有效促进灾区旅游业的快速恢复和加速发展。
The‘May 12 earthquake'struck western Sichuan in 2008. Here,we analyze the impact of the earthquake on Wenchuan regional tourism based on total tourism revenue and volume of visitor arrivals to Sichuan province and the Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture during2000-2011. We adopted the gray prediction method(GPM)and gray correlation method(GCM)to compare the different impact of the earthquake at two regional scales in terms of total tourism revenue,volume of visitor arrivals,and yearly and seasonal characteristics. We found that the impact of the earthquake can be divided into four periods:smooth development before the earthquake,a sudden fall during the earthquake,a struggling recovery period after the earthquake,and a rapid development period. The length of time of the struggling recovery period is different across the two regions:in Sichuan it was 1 year or so,and in Aba was about 3 years. The impact of the earthquake on tourism varies markedly at different regional scales whereby Sichuan lost 18.694 billion CNY in total tourism revenue and 184 million visitors the following year;Aba lost 11.462 billion CNY and 13 million visitors over three years. The impact of the earthquake on tourism seasonal characteristics in Sichuan is not significant,but significant for Aba. This shows that the impact of the earthquake on the seasonal characteristics of small-scale regional tourism(Aba)is more significant than that on a large-scale region(Sichuan). The volume of visitor arrivals to Aba increases significantly in May and June and indicates that the effective promotion of tourism development in this disaster area is possible.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第8期1652-1659,共8页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目:"部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构
机理与适应对策"(编号:41171090)
关键词
汶川地震
旅游业
季节特征
灰色预测方法
灰色关联方法
Wenchuan earthquake
tourism
seasonal characteristics
gray prediction method
gray correlation method
