摘要
理论上货币政策的传导主要有货币渠道和信贷渠道两种途径,但国内学者对于不同渠道的货币政策传导效果存在一定的分歧。本文运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、向量自回归模型等技术,对我国从1994年第一季度至2003年第一季度期间的货币政策传导机制进行实证分析,从而找出M1、LOAN和GDP以及M2、LOAN和GDP之间的稳定关系,证明了目前在我国,货币政策是通过货币渠道而不是信贷渠道对实体经济产生影响的。
In theory, the transmission of monetary policy depends on monetary channel or credit channel. But there is controversy on the role of monetary or credit channel in China. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy from the first quarter of 1994 to the first quarter of 2003 sample period in China by such approach as unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, vector autoregressive model (VAR)etc, to find out the steady relation among M_1,LOAN and GDP as well M_2,LOAN and GDP. The results show that the monetary policy influences the real economy through the monetary channel rather than through credit channel in China at present.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第3期19-30,共12页
Journal of Finance and Economics
关键词
货币政策
传导机制
货币渠道
信贷渠道
monetary policy
transmission mechanism
monetary channel
credit channel
