摘要
突发疫情跨地区扩散过程中,交通运输通道起着重要的传播途径作用。鉴于交通运输本身所具有的特性,突发疫情在交通运输过程中增加了新的扩散特点,增大了异地传播概率。在研究交通运输传播疫情诸效应基础上,建立交通运输突发疫情扩散概率模型。通过实例分析,确定各种交通运输方式突发疫情的扩散概率,为旅客在疫情发生时进行出行方式比选提供依据。
Traffic and transportation passages act as an important media in the inter-region spreading process of broke-out diseases. The broke-out diseases gain some new spreading traits in the process of traveling due to the characteristics of the transportation, which increase the spreading probability of broke-out diseases between different regions. On the base of studying the effects of diseases spread via transportation, the broke-out diseases spreading probability model is set up. By analyzing example, the thesis demonstrates the different probability of different transportation manner and presents a reference of choosing travel means for passenger under broke-out diseases epidemic situation.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2004年第2期65-67,共3页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50348013)
关键词
交通运输
突发疫情
扩散概率
概率模型
traffic and transportation
theory
model
study
broke-out diseases
spreading probability
