摘要
目的 应用灰色模型研究疟疾在我国的流行趋势。方法 采用 1994～ 2 0 0 1年“全国甲乙类传染病疫情动态报告”资料对我国各型疟疾的发病率进行流行病学研究分析 ,并用GM (1,1)模型 ^Yt+ 1=(Xt-u/a)×e-at+u/a预测 2 0 0 3年各型疟疾的发病率趋势。结果 近 8年来我国各型疟疾的发病率均呈渐降的趋势 ,根据GM (1,1)模型的外推预测 ,2 0 0 3年我国疟疾、间日疟、恶性疟与其余未分型疟疾的发病率估计分别为 15 .4/10万、11.5 /10万、2 .8/10万和1.3 2 /10万。结论 我国的疟疾发病率总体上呈下降趋势 ,但作为一种危害人民生命健康的重要的蚊媒传染病 ,其监测与发病率预报工作仍具有重要的卫生学意义。
Objective The morbidity analysis and trend prediction of malaria in China using the Grey Model method. Methods The morbidities of all kinds of malaria were analyzed according to “National Data of Class A and B Infectious Diseases” during 1994 to 2001, and trends of morbidity in 2003 were predicted using the GM(1,1)method. Results The morbidities of all kinds of malaria declined continuously in the recent eight years. According to the prediction of the Grey Model, the morbidities of all kinds of malaria were predicted as 15.4, 11.5, 2.8, 1.32 per 100 000 in 2003, respectively. Conclusion The morbidities of malaria in China have declined continuously in total, but its monitoring and prediction are still of sanitary importance as an important vector-borne disease hazardous to the health of citizens.
出处
《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2004年第1期43-45,共3页
Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control
