摘要
人口预测经常被用来模拟生育政策调整,然而政策调整模拟有许多特点需要专门考虑。文章对模拟生育政策调整的人口预测方法进行了探讨,指出常规生育率预测方法不能控制妇女孩次结构的缺陷,并介绍了年龄递进生育模型的应用。文章还建议有关政策调整的人口模拟应当尽量按不同生育政策类型人口来进行,指出采用连续变化生育参数的常规模拟方式不能反映政策调整的突变特性,其实并未模拟确切的政策调整方案。文章还针对以往政策模拟预测中的缺陷,提出了一些建议,并简评了考虑生育模式变化的模拟思路。
Population projection is often used for simulating the adjustment of fertility policies. However, many important methodological aspects in its convention need to be reconsidered when it is used for so doing. The conventional fertility rate method is not suitable for such research purpose, because it cannot take into account the effects of parity composition of women. As an alternative , the model of age-specific parity progression is suggested. Such projections should be conducted by fertility policy in a specific population group base instead of urban rural convention base; otherwise the projections cannot tell where the effects of the adjustment are located. Besides, the usual way of steady change of fertility level as input fails to represent any particular design of policy adjustment since the policies embody the life-time birth quantum for a couple, while quantity is an integer. Some alternative ways for simulating the adjustment in projection are proposed. Finally, brief comments are given on the simulation with change in age patterns of fertility.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第2期2-12,共11页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
