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我国期货市场与国际期货市场关联度分析与协整检验 被引量:35

Analysis of the Association between Chinese and International Commodity Futures Markets and Associated Co - integration Tests
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摘要 本文以中国大连商品交易所数据为例,分析了中国期货市场与国际期货市场的接轨程度和关联度,表明中国期货市场已基本具备市场的有效性,并形成了价格自我约束机制。最后,给出了模型结果的政策启示与几点建议。 In this article, author discusses the degree of association between China's commodity futures market and its international counterparts. Author establishes a co - integration relationship between the volume - series and open interest in food commodity futures market, using logarithm. The study suggests that there is a co - integration relation between the soybean futures price logarithm recorded in the Dalian market and the soybean spot price logarithm in the Heilongjiang market. This finding proves that China' s commodity futures markets have worked soundly. The study provides constructive ideas and poli cy proposals for the further development of China's commodity futures markets.
作者 赵进文
出处 《中国软科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第5期34-40,共7页 China Soft Science
基金 国家社科基金项目"复杂数据的统计诊断方法及其应用"(批准号:02BTJ002)的研究成果之一
关键词 关联度 期货与现货价格 扩展Dickey—Fuller检验统计量 两步Engle—Granger协整回归 I(0)序列与I(1)序列 协整关系 degree of association futures price & spot price augmented Dickey - Fuller test statistic two - stage Engle Granger co - integration regression Ⅰ(0)& Ⅰ(1)series co - integration relationship
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参考文献8

  • 1Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W.J. , Co - integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 1987(2), 251 - 276.
  • 2Ericsson, N. R., Hendry, D. F. and Hong Anh Tran, Cointegration, Seasonality, Encompassing, and the Demand for Money in the United Kingdom. International Finance Discussion Papers.1994 ( Number 457).
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  • 7赵进文.经济计量诊断学[M].天津:天津人民出版社,2000..
  • 8赵进文.复杂数据下经济建模与诊断研究[M].天津:天津人民出版社,2000..

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