摘要
宏观异常的大规模出现是地壳强烈活动的重要标志 ,常与其后的强震活动相关。中国多次强震短临预测的成功 ,在一定程度上依赖于大规模的宏观异常。然而 ,宏观异常也具有二重性 ,一方面可作为重要的地震短临前兆 ,另一方面也可能是由构造活动引起的 ,不具有前兆的性质。因此 ,在地震预报的科学探索中 ,应大力加强宏观异常的观察、观测、分析与研究 ,识别地震前兆与构造活动异常的区别 。
It is well known that the appearance of a vast amount of macro-anomalous phenomena is an important sign of strong activity of crust and is often followed by the occurrence of strong earthquake.Some examples of successful short-impending prediction of strong earthquake depended greatly on the appearance of a vast amount of macro-anomalous phenomena.The most famous examples are the cases of Haicheng,Longling and Songpan strong earthquakes.During the crucial moment of the prediction of these earthquakes,macro-anomalous phenomena had played an important role,which might not be replaced by micro-anomalous phe-nomena.It may indicate that the successful prediction of strong earthquake would not come true without macro-anomalous phenomena. However,in the period from May to June of2002,after a vast amount of reliable macro-anomalous phenomena coming forth in Xichang area,Sichuan Province,the expected earthquake did not occur.The analysis has shown that these anomalous phenomena are controlled by tectonic structure,and their distribu-tion bears a close relation with fault structure,and especially the anomaly of ground water has a notable tectonic attribute. This fact may indicate that the macro-anomalous phenomena are not equivalent to earthquake precur-sor,and they posses duality.On the one hand they can be regarded as an important short-impending earth-quake precursor,and on the other hand they may reflect the anomaly of tectonic activity,rather than the precursor of earthquake.During the development of earthquake prediction,therefore,the observation,analysis and study of the macro-anomalous phenomena should be greatly enhanced,so that earthquake pre-cursor can be distinguished from the anomaly of tectonic activity.In this way,the macro-anomalous phe-nomena will play a more and more important role in earthquake prediction.
出处
《地震地质》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第2期340-346,共7页
Seismology and Geology
关键词
地震预报
地壳活动
前兆异常
构造活动
macro-anomalous phenomena,earthquake precursor,anomaly of tectonic activity,earthquake prediction.
