摘要
利用从属函数法提取粤闽地区地下流体的地震前兆异常 ,并对异常做 0 1化处理 ,绘制了异常频次叠加图。结果表明 ,从 1989 0 1～ 2 0 0 3 0 9,9项流体资料共出现 2 9次从属函数异常 ,其中 2 3次异常对应了粤闽两省 5级左右地震或台湾地区 6级以上强震 ,虚报 6次。 9项资料的从属函数异常频次叠加值具有成丛性的特点 ,可大致划分为5组 ,每组异常持续时间的长短与震级具有一定的相关性 ,可由此拟定地震强度的预测标志。
In this paper, we applied subordinate function to obtain the seismic precursor anomalies of subsurface fluid in Guangdong and Fujian. The data used in this paper are over 10 years′ continuous records including water level of Huaan, Shaoguan, Huadu, Meizhou and radon in the water of Huaan, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou, Yongchun. We first calculated 13-point sliding mean of monthly average value, and then calculated the subordinate function. After transforming the subordinate function into 0-1, the anomaly-frequency-superposition were calculated. The diagram obtained was the object of studiy.The diagram shows that the subordinate function of data appeared to be of positive anomalies that were more than 0.5. Up to 29 positive anomalies of them appeared from January 1989 to September (2003.6 ) are aseismic anomaly, and the others correspond with the earthquakes (about M5) occurred in Guangdong and Fujian or the strong earthquakes (M≥6) occurred in Taiwan. After studying the anomaly-frequency-superposition diagram, we found that the value of anomaly-frequency-superposition of subordinate function can be separated into 5 anomaly periods with cluster feature. There was a statistical correlation between the length of the anomaly period and the intensity of earthquake. We may predict the earthquake intensity depend on the length of the anomaly period. The prediction index is whether the length of anomaly periods is up to 10 months or not. The superposition method was easier to eliminate the interference created by accidental factor compared with the single anomaly method.
出处
《防灾减灾工程学报》
CSCD
2004年第2期195-201,共7页
Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering
基金
国家"十五"攻关科技项目--强地震短临预测技术研究资助项目 ( 2 0 0 1BA60 1B 0 4 0 3 )
关键词
从属函数
地下流体
前兆异常
subordinate function
subsurface fluid
precursor anomaly
