贸易引力模型对中国双边贸易的实证检验和政策含义被引量：109

Empirical Test of China's Bilateral Trade with the Trade Gravity Model and its Policy Implications

下载PDF

导出

摘要贸易引力模型是对国际贸易进行实证分析的重要方法。本文以传统的贸易引力模型为基础,考虑中国国情,合理增减解释变量,建立适合中国双边贸易的引力模型。通过对该模型的实证检验和政策含义的分析得出;GDP、空间距离、国土面积和APEC是影响中国双边贸易的主要变量;在对外贸易依存度过高和贸易发展潜力有限的情况下,中国当前应该充分利用国内资源禀赋,深化国内贸易,同时积极调整贸易政策,改善贸易结构。

作者林玲王炎

机构地区武汉大学商学院世界经济系

出处《世界经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第7期54-58,共5页 World Economy Studies

关键词贸易引力模型实证检验政策含义

分类号 F752.0 [经济管理—国际贸易]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献8

1谷克鉴.国际经济学对引力模型的开发与应用[J].世界经济,2001,24(2):14-25. 被引量：172
2姜书竹,张旭昆.东盟贸易效应的引力模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003,20(10):53-57. 被引量：105
3刘青峰,姜书竹.从贸易引力模型看中国双边贸易安排[J].浙江社会科学,2002(6):17-20. 被引量：249
4张杰,古斯达.克里斯坦森.引力模型在国际贸易理论中的发展和应用——兼论欧共体与其他国家(地区)的贸易[J].国际贸易问题,1996(1):29-36. 被引量：10
5Casetti, E : "Generating Models by the Expansion Method: Applications to Geographical Research". Geographical Analysis,vol.3,no.l ,pp.81-91,1972.
6Linnemann, H : An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company,1966.
7Poyhonen, P. "A Tentative Model of the Volume of Trade between Countries".Wehwirtschaftliches Archiv,Band 90. pp.93- 99, 1963.
8Tinbergen, J : Shaping the World Economy, Appendix VI,"An Analysis of World Trade Flows". New York: Twentieth Century Fund ,1962.

二级参考文献19

1[美]保罗·R·克鲁格曼 [以]埃尔赫南·赫尔普曼.《市场结构和对外贸易—报酬递增、不完全竞争和国际贸易》[M].上海三联书店,1993..
2大卫‘格林纳韦.《国际贸易前沿问题》[M].中国税务出版社,2000..
3Poyhonen, Pentti (1963), A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries, Weltwirtschafliches Archive, Vol. 90, pp.93- 100.
4Helpman, E. (1987), Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries, Journal of Japanese and International Economy,MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
5Deardorff, V. Alan(1995), Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassic World? National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper,5377.
6Frankel. Jeffrey. A, Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
7Garman George and Debora Gilliard (1999), Economic Integration in The Americas: 1975- 1992, The Journal of Applied Business Research, Vol. 14 Number 3.
8Wall J, Howard (1999), Using the Gravity Model to Estimate the Costs of Protection, January/February Review of Federal Bank of Saint Louis.
9Tamirisa, Natalia (1999) ,Exchange and Capital Control as Barriers to Trade, IMF Staff Papers.
10Sohn, Chon- Hyun,A Gravity Model Analysis of Korea's Trade Patterns and the Effects of a Regional Trading Arrangement, 2001,http://www.indo.com.