摘要
利用近61年(1960~2020年)新疆塔城地区7个气象台站逐日平均气温资料,采用线性倾向率、气候趋势系数、M-K突变检验等数理统计方法,对塔城地区不同界限温度积温的时空变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:① 近61a塔城地区7站中乌苏各界限温度积温最多,沙湾次之,和丰最少;区域中南部最多,其次为塔城盆地,和丰最少。② 各站及各区域各界限温度积温基本以1980年代、1990年代、2000年代最多,1960年代最少;③ 各站及各区域各界限温度积温均表现为显著增多趋势,其中≥0℃、15℃积温托里分别以103.8℃/10a、108.6℃/10a的速率显著增多,≥10℃、20℃积温塔城分别以108.9℃/10a、126.6℃/10a的速率显著增多,其余各站增幅各不相同;区域中各界限温度积温以塔城盆地增幅最大,分别以98.7℃/10a、102.9℃/10a、102.0℃/10a、115.5℃/10a的速率显著增多,其次为南部,最少为和丰。④ 塔城盆地 ≥ 0℃、10℃积温序列在20世纪90年代初期发生过明显的由少到多和由多到少的突变,≥15℃、20℃积温序列在20世纪80年代末期发生过突变;南部≥10℃、15℃积温序列在20世纪90年代中期发生过突变,≥0℃积温序列在20世纪90年代中期发生过突变,≥20℃积温序列在20世纪80年代中期发生过突变;和丰 ≥ 10℃、15℃积温序列在20世纪80年代末期发生过突变,≥0℃积温序列在20世纪90年代初期发生过突变,≥20℃积温序列在20世纪80年代末期至90年代初期发生过突变,各区域突变点各不相同。
Based on the daily average temperature data of 7 meteorological stations in Tacheng area of Xin-jiang in recent 61 years (1960~2020), the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of accumulated temperature at different limits in Tacheng area were analyzed by using mathematical statistics methods such as linear trend rate, climatic trend coefficient and M-K mutation test. The results show that: 1) In recent 61 years, among the 7 stations in Tacheng area accumulated temperature is the highest in Wusu, Shawan is the second, and Hefeng is the least. High value center locates central and southern of Tacheng area, Tacheng Basin is the second, and Hefeng is the least. Among the seven stations, Wusu has the highest accumulated temperature, Shawan is next, and Hefeng is the least. Tacheng Basin is the second, and Hefeng basin is the least. 2) The accumulated temperature of each station and each region was the highest in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000, and the lowest in the 1960s. 3) The accumulated temperature of each station and each region showed a significant increase trend. The accumulated temperature of ≥0˚C and 15˚C Toli increased significantly at 103.8˚C/10a and 108.6˚C/10a, respectively. The accumulated temperature of ≥10˚C and 20˚C Tachong increased significantly at 108.9˚C/10a and 126.6˚C/10a, respectively. The growth rate of other stations is not the same;Tacheng Basin had the largest increase in accumulated temperature, with the rates of 98.7˚C/10a, 102.9˚C/10a, 102.0˚C/10a and 115.5˚C/10a, respectively, followed by the south, and the least was Hefeng. 4) The accumulated temperature sequences of ≥0˚C and 10˚C in Tacheng Basin had obvious abrupt changes from less to more and from more to less in the early 1990s, and the accumulated temperature sequences of ≥15˚C and 20˚C had abrupt changes in the late 1980s. In the south, ≥10˚C and 15˚C accumulated temperature sequences were mutated in the mid-1990s, ≥0˚C accumulated temperature sequences were mutated in the mid-1990s, and ≥20˚C accumulated temperature sequences were mutated in the mid-1980s. The sequence of accumulated temperature ≥ 10˚C and 15˚C in Hefeng was mutated in the late 1980s, the sequence of accumulated temperature ≥ 0˚C was mutated in the early 1990s, and the sequence of accumulated temperature ≥ 20˚C was mutated from the late 1980s to the early 1990s, with different mutation points in each region.
出处
《气候变化研究快报》
2022年第2期145-155,共11页
Climate Change Research Letters
