摘要
为评价气候变暖背景下高原冬小麦主要生育期变化,基于1991~2022年雅鲁藏布江中游(简称雅江中游)的泽当冬小麦生育期及气温、降水量、日照时数等资料,采用一元回归、Person相关系数和逐步回归方法,分析了雅江中游冬小麦生育期变化特征以及影响的主导气候因子。结果表明:1991~2022年,雅江中游冬小麦营养生长期(VGP)、生殖生长期(RGP)和全生育期(WGP)的平均气温均趋于升高,平均最高气温升温率明显比平均最低气温要大,气温日较差呈增大趋势。VGP、WGP的≥0℃积温、降水量和日照时数为增加趋势,平均相对湿度趋于减少,而RGP这些要素的变化趋势相反。冬小麦各生育期日期都呈推迟趋势,平均每10 a推迟0.61~14.16 d,以分蘖期推迟的最为显著。冬小麦VGP延长,RGP、WGP缩短。4月、6月平均最低气温降低,11月平均最高气温升高、日照时数增加,是冬小麦生育期普遍推迟的主要原因。
In order to evaluate the main growth period changes of winter wheat in the plateau under the background of climate warming, based on the data for growth period of winter wheat, temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration etc. at Tsedang station in the middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River (MYZR) over Xizang from 1991 to 2022, the change characteristics of growth period for winter wheat and the dominant climatic factors in MYZR were analyzed, by using of one-dimensional regression, Person correlation coefficient and stepwise regression methods. The results showed that: From 1991 to 2022, the average temperature of the vegetative growth period (VGP), reproductive growth period (RGP) and whole growth period (WGP) for winter wheat increased in MYZR. The warming rate of the average maximum temperature was significantly higher than that of the aver-age minimum temperature, and the daily temperature range showed an increasing trend. The ≥ 0˚C accumulated temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration of VGP and WGP increased, and the average relative humidity decreased, while the trend of these elements in RGP was opposite. The date of each growth period of winter wheat delayed in MYZR, with the rate of 0.61~14.16 days per decade, with the most significant delay in the tillering stage. The VGP of winter wheat was prolonged, and RGP and WGP were shortened. The decrease of average minimum temperature in April and June, the increase of average maximum temperature and sunshine duration in November were the main reasons for the general delay in growth period of winter wheat.
出处
《气候变化研究快报》
2023年第6期1147-1155,共9页
Climate Change Research Letters
