摘要
本文比较了MRI-AGCM3-2-H模式对热带气旋(Tropical Cyclones, TC)和强台风(Severe Typhoon, STY)的未来变化趋势及相关的大尺度环流因素,结果表明:未来TC的年际变化呈现出显著减少的趋势,尤其是西北太平洋(WNP)东部TC的生成概率显著减少,未来STY的变化也是显著减少的长期趋势。通过DGPI指数对TC的减少进行诊断分析,贡献最大的环境因素是500 hPa垂直速度。通风效应的加强是STY减少的原因,这主要是由热力学参数的显著增强引起的。与TC生成和发展相关的季风槽减弱,副热带高压增强,大气环流系统向不利于对流活动的方向发展,因此限制了TC的生成和加强。
This study compared the future trends of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Severe Typhoons (STYs) in the MRI-AGCM3-2-H model and their associated large scale environmental factors. The results indicate a significant decrease in the interannual variability of TC, particularly in the probability of TC generation in the eastern Western North Pacific (WNP). Similarly, there is a significant decreasing trend in STY. Diagnostic analysis using the DGPI index revealed that the most significant environmental factor contributing to the decrease in TC is the 500 hPa vertical velocity. The strengthening of the ventilation effect is attributed to the reduction in STY, primarily due to the significant enhancement of thermodynamic parameters. The weakening of the monsoon trough and the strengthening of the subtropical high-pressure system, associated with changes in atmospheric circulation unfavorable for convective activity, limit the generation and intensification of TC.
出处
《气候变化研究快报》
2024年第4期896-906,共11页
Climate Change Research Letters
