摘要
目的:这里研究通过气象因素数据对稻瘟病的发生程度进行预警。方法:本文选择旬平均气温,旬平均降水量,旬平均水汽压作为预警气象因子,建立稻瘟病发生程度的数学模型,对稻瘟病发生程度进行预警。结果:实证结果表明,利用该模型对稻瘟病最高发生程度进行预警时,准确率达到98.6%;而利用该模型对稻瘟病实际发生程度进行预警时,完全准确的比例为24.70%,偏差1个等级的比例为70.73%。结论:这说明,所建立的预警模型具有较好的预警准确性。
Objective: This study aims at prediction of the occurrence degree of rice blast by meteorological factor data. Method: In this paper, ten-day average temperature, ten-day average precipitation and ten-day average water vapor pressure are selected as early warning meteorological factors to establish a mathematical model for the occurrence degree of rice blast. Result: The empirical results show that when the model is used to predict the highest degree of rice blast, the accuracy is 98.6%. When the model is used to predict the actual degree of rice blast, the completely accurate proportion was 24.70%, and the deviation within one grade was 70.73%. Conclusion: This shows that the model has good warning accuracy.
出处
《运筹与模糊学》
2020年第3期205-212,共8页
Operations Research and Fuzziology
关键词
农业气象
稻瘟病
发生程度
预警
Agrometeorology
Rice Blast
Degree of Occurrence
Warning
