摘要
为积极应对生育水平持续走低的现象,国家提出三胎政策,并出台了一系列的福利措施,但效果差强人意。本次调查以问卷的形式收集了部分山东省居民的数据,首先进行聚类分析,划分为三类生育人群,总结各类特征。其次通过查阅文献设置量表题将生育意愿量化,构建含有定性变量的回归方程,找出造成生育焦虑的主要原因有失去时间和精力享受自己的生活、长辈意愿、怀孕过程艰辛、育儿成本等。最后分别从工作、公共服务、政府和家庭的角度设置量表题,建立模糊评价模型。结果显示,民众对于现有生育社会支持的满意度超过了一般等级但未达到满意,公共服务支持的得分最低,其中权重最大的是“现有法律保障职场女性不受歧视”,其次是“0~3岁托幼服务质量”,在此假设国家在这两方面加强了措施,再次进行评价,总体得分提高,说明了建议的有效性。但总体得分提高幅度不大,说明提高生育意愿并非轻而易举之事,构建“生育友好型社会”任重而道远。
In order to actively respond to the continuous decline in fertility levels, the state has proposed a three-child policy and introduced a series of welfare measures, but the effect is unsatisfactory. This survey collected the data of some residents in Shandong Province in the form of questionnaires. Firstly, cluster analysis was carried out to divide them into three types of fertility groups and summarize various characteristics. Secondly, the fertility desire is quantified by consulting the literature to set the scale questions, and the regression equation with qualitative variables is constructed to find out the main causes of fertility anxiety, such as the loss of time and energy to enjoy their own life, the willingness of elders, the difficulty of pregnancy, and the cost of parenting. Finally, the scale questions are set up from the perspectives of work, public service, government and family, and a fuzzy evaluation model is established. The results show that the public’s satisfaction with the existing social support for fertility exceeds the general level but does not reach satisfaction, and the score of public service support is the lowest. Among them, the most important weight is “the existing law guarantees that women in the workplace are not discriminated against”, followed by “the quality of childcare services for 0~3 years old”. In this assumption, the state has strengthened measures in these two aspects and evaluated again. The overall score has increased, indicating the effectiveness of the recommendations. However, the overall score did not increase significantly, indicating that increasing fertility desire is not an easy task, and building a “fertility-friendly society” has a long way to go.
出处
《统计学与应用》
2023年第1期206-223,共18页
Statistical and Application
