摘要
以温室效应为主要表现的全球气候变化已经成为21世纪国际社会共同关注的焦点问题之一,中国作为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国,必须做出应有的贡献。因此根据中国的实际国情,合理界定中国应承担的碳排放减排义务,促进中国的节能减排工作顺利开展就成为了当前学术界关注的重点问题之一。本文利用1997~2018年间全球33个具有代表性的国家的宏观季度数据,以EKG理论作为支撑,构造全球向量自回归模型(Global VAR模型),探究在全球环境下中国产业结构升级对于中国二氧化碳排放量的动态影响。本文研究的结论表明:由于中国粗放式的经济发展模式,中国的经济增长会显著地促进自身碳排放量的增长;而驱动产业结构升级,转变经济发展模式是促进中国碳减排的最为有效的方法之一。
Global climate change, which is mainly manifested by the greenhouse effect, has become one of the focus issues of the international community in the 21st century. As the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter, China must make its due contribution. Therefore, in accordance with China’s actual national conditions, a reasonable definition of China’s carbon emission reduction obligations and the promotion of China’s energy conservation and emission reduction work have become one of the key issues of current academic concern. This article uses the macro quarterly data of 33 representative countries in the world from 1997 to 2018, and uses EKG theory as support to construct a global vector autoregressive model (Global VAR model) to explore the dynamic impact of China’s industrial structure upgrading on China’s carbon dioxide emissions in the global environment. The conclusions of the research in this paper indicate that due to China’s extensive economic development model, China’s economic growth will significantly promote the growth of its own carbon emissions;driving the upgrading of industrial structure and changing the economic development model is the most effective way to promote China’s carbon emissions reduction.
出处
《可持续发展》
2021年第1期149-159,共11页
Sustainable Development
