摘要
The target of this research is to estimate the distribution of global solar radiation (GSR) and reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for development of PV cost reduction and predict of level cost energy over five countries in North Africa during the period time from 2011 to 2020. The effectiveness of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North African countries was evaluated against high-quality surfaces measured using statistical analysis. The average values of mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the reanalysis data of solar radiation vary from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.055 to 0.178, and 0.0145 to 0.198 respectively during the period time in the present research. The correlation coefficient (R<sup>2</sup>) varies from 0.93 to 99% in the present research. North African countries are among the most vulnerable regions to the potential impacts of climate change. The increasing impact of climate change shows the need to build up a reliable energy mix and improve the resilience of existing and new energy systems. The development of PV cost reduction and the predicted of level cost of energy (LCOE) are discussed and used one PV Module to calculate the total cost for five countries in North Africa. This research’s objective is to provide a reliable representation of the world’s solar radiation to aid in the use of solar energy in all sectors.
The target of this research is to estimate the distribution of global solar radiation (GSR) and reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for development of PV cost reduction and predict of level cost energy over five countries in North Africa during the period time from 2011 to 2020. The effectiveness of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North African countries was evaluated against high-quality surfaces measured using statistical analysis. The average values of mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the reanalysis data of solar radiation vary from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.055 to 0.178, and 0.0145 to 0.198 respectively during the period time in the present research. The correlation coefficient (R<sup>2</sup>) varies from 0.93 to 99% in the present research. North African countries are among the most vulnerable regions to the potential impacts of climate change. The increasing impact of climate change shows the need to build up a reliable energy mix and improve the resilience of existing and new energy systems. The development of PV cost reduction and the predicted of level cost of energy (LCOE) are discussed and used one PV Module to calculate the total cost for five countries in North Africa. This research’s objective is to provide a reliable representation of the world’s solar radiation to aid in the use of solar energy in all sectors.
作者
Samy A. Khalil
Usama Ali Rahoma
Samy A. Khalil;Usama Ali Rahoma(Solar and Space Department, National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Cairo, Egypt)
