摘要
本文以鄱阳湖流域为研究对象,研究变化环境下极端气候事件的时空分布及演变规律。利用流域内13个代表站点1961~2005年的逐日降水量资料,选用BCC-CSM1.1全球气候模式和三种(高、中、低)温室气体典型浓度路径排放情景,并与SDSM统计降尺度模型耦合,分析预测未来极值降水量级、强度和持续性指标的变化趋势。得出以下主要结论:进行偏差校正后的SDSM统计降尺度模型可应用于未来极值降水指标的计算;鄱阳湖流域未来极值降水量级、强度和持续性主要呈增加趋势;流域有降水集中化的趋势,这对于流域防洪较为不利,且未来可能面临较大的“旱涝急转”的风险。
As climate change will certainly result in strong response from extreme climatic events, investi-gating the spatio-temporal distribution and evolution laws of extreme climatic events is of great importance. Based on the daily precipitation from 1961 to 2005 from thirteen meteorological sta-tions within the Poyang Lake basin, daily precipitation for future period of 2010-2099 is simulated using the SDSM statistical downscaling model. Coupling a BCC-CSM1.1 GCM with three representa-tive concentration pathways (RCPs), the changing characteristics of magnitude, intensity and per-sistence of extreme precipitation are studied by means of several extreme precipitation indices. A bias correction procedure should be applied to the SDSM simulated historical precipitation before it can be used to simulate future precipitation. The extreme precipitation magnitude and intensity, as well as the persistence all show significantly increasing trends. Upgrading flood mitigation dif-ficulties due to a concentration tendency of precipitation, as well as the increasing potential of abrupt alternation between flood and drought will threaten the water resources security of the Poyang Lake basin.
出处
《水资源研究》
2014年第6期511-521,共11页
Journal of Water Resources Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(51190094)资助项目。
