【目的】马铃薯作为中国第四大主粮作物,其适宜性评价对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究基于气候数据,构建集成物种分布模型预测中国未来时期马铃薯气候适宜区,为优化中国马铃薯种植提供重要科学参考。【方法】利用6种全球气候模...【目的】马铃薯作为中国第四大主粮作物,其适宜性评价对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究基于气候数据,构建集成物种分布模型预测中国未来时期马铃薯气候适宜区,为优化中国马铃薯种植提供重要科学参考。【方法】利用6种全球气候模式(global climate models,GCMs)未来气候数据驱动5种物种分布模型(species distribution models,SDMs),集成模拟预测未来4种温室气体排放情景(ssp126、ssp245、ssp370、ssp585)下,中国历史上(1970—2000年)和4个未来时期(2021—2040、2041—2060、2061—2080、2081—2100年)的马铃薯气候适宜区时空分布特征。【结果】(1)最湿月份的降水量、最暖月份的最高温度,以及最冷季度的平均温度是影响中国马铃薯气候适宜度的主要气象因子,对模拟结果的贡献率分别为54.7%、21.4%和18.1%。(2)4种温室气体排放情景下对于各适宜等级区域的预测结果变化基本一致,都呈现适宜区、低适宜区面积变大而高适宜区面积变小的趋势,仅在海南、西藏、新疆等地局部存在种植气候不适宜区。马铃薯适宜种植区(适宜区和高适宜区)的面积在各种情况下均超过50%。(3)在未来各时期马铃薯种植低适宜区和适宜区面积将大幅增加,而高适宜区面积则呈下降趋势,各适宜等级区域面积总体依旧保持:适宜区>低适宜区>高适宜区。(4)随着温室气体排放等级的提高,中国马铃薯高适宜区将大幅减小。从空间分布上看,中国马铃薯种植高适宜区主要以东北地区、甘肃地区、新疆西部,以及西南部分区域为主;从时间顺序上看,陕西北部、长江中下游区域、内蒙古中西部等区域受未来气候变化影响较大,马铃薯气候适宜度减小趋势明显。【结论】利用构建的集成物种分布模型预测了未来时期中国马铃薯气候适宜区时空分布特征。根据模型模拟结果,建议东北、甘肃、西南等地区可以作为未来马铃薯的主要种植区域,新疆等地区可以作为主要发展区域,其他地区应按照当地情况优先发展其他粮食和经济作物。展开更多
In order to provide some preliminary recommendations for the sustainable use and management of croplands, land suitability evaluation for crops was carried out in Shouyang County which partly locates on the Loess Plat...In order to provide some preliminary recommendations for the sustainable use and management of croplands, land suitability evaluation for crops was carried out in Shouyang County which partly locates on the Loess Plateau suffering severe soil and water erosion and is characterized by ecological vulnerability and semi-arid climate. Here, land suitability for 4 local crops of maize, wheat, sorghum and millet under 2 cultivation senarios of tradition and mechanization was evaluated by a upscaling approach. The upscaling was implemented in a land form hierarchy which was composed of land unit, land facet and land site at 3 spatial levels. The IAO land suitability evaluation model for crops was revised by applying a meteorological revision index. Rresults showed that a polarized phenomenon occurred, which means that the most suitable class （S1） and the most unsuitable class （N2） were predominant in acreage percentage for all the 4 crops. Maize, millet and wheat were relatively more adaptive to be grown and should be ploughed in the traditional mode. Hence, future cropland use policy should pay more attention to the conversion of arable land to forestland and grassland in unsuitable areas and to more investment for agricultural production in suitable regions, and it is necessary to balance the relationship between the livelihood of local farmers and environmental protection to maintain a healthy and stable ecosystem.展开更多
Since the increasing demand for arable land and low efficient and disordered use of rural residential land,land consolidation for rural settlement has become a hot issue in China.Many Chinese scientists studied the to...Since the increasing demand for arable land and low efficient and disordered use of rural residential land,land consolidation for rural settlement has become a hot issue in China.Many Chinese scientists studied the topic from different angles.However,there is no reference systematically summarizing and discussing feasibility of consolidating rural residential land into arable land.The authors listed and analyzed the calculation methods of consolidating rural residential land into arable land,and discussed the feasibility and reasonability of those methods.Moreover,this paper put forward the study orientation in this regard for providing references for relevant researches.展开更多
文摘【目的】马铃薯作为中国第四大主粮作物,其适宜性评价对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究基于气候数据,构建集成物种分布模型预测中国未来时期马铃薯气候适宜区,为优化中国马铃薯种植提供重要科学参考。【方法】利用6种全球气候模式(global climate models,GCMs)未来气候数据驱动5种物种分布模型(species distribution models,SDMs),集成模拟预测未来4种温室气体排放情景(ssp126、ssp245、ssp370、ssp585)下,中国历史上(1970—2000年)和4个未来时期(2021—2040、2041—2060、2061—2080、2081—2100年)的马铃薯气候适宜区时空分布特征。【结果】(1)最湿月份的降水量、最暖月份的最高温度,以及最冷季度的平均温度是影响中国马铃薯气候适宜度的主要气象因子,对模拟结果的贡献率分别为54.7%、21.4%和18.1%。(2)4种温室气体排放情景下对于各适宜等级区域的预测结果变化基本一致,都呈现适宜区、低适宜区面积变大而高适宜区面积变小的趋势,仅在海南、西藏、新疆等地局部存在种植气候不适宜区。马铃薯适宜种植区(适宜区和高适宜区)的面积在各种情况下均超过50%。(3)在未来各时期马铃薯种植低适宜区和适宜区面积将大幅增加,而高适宜区面积则呈下降趋势,各适宜等级区域面积总体依旧保持:适宜区>低适宜区>高适宜区。(4)随着温室气体排放等级的提高,中国马铃薯高适宜区将大幅减小。从空间分布上看,中国马铃薯种植高适宜区主要以东北地区、甘肃地区、新疆西部,以及西南部分区域为主;从时间顺序上看,陕西北部、长江中下游区域、内蒙古中西部等区域受未来气候变化影响较大,马铃薯气候适宜度减小趋势明显。【结论】利用构建的集成物种分布模型预测了未来时期中国马铃薯气候适宜区时空分布特征。根据模型模拟结果,建议东北、甘肃、西南等地区可以作为未来马铃薯的主要种植区域,新疆等地区可以作为主要发展区域,其他地区应按照当地情况优先发展其他粮食和经济作物。
基金Supported by the Foundation of Key Laboratory of Resources RemoteSensing and Digital Agriculture of Chinese Ministry of Agriculture(RDA091 0)Commonweal Foundation of China's National Academy(200990124)+2 种基金Major Program of National Natural ScienceFoundation of China(409301 01)National Key Technologies R& D Program of China(2006BAC08B0404)National Science andTechnology Project of China(2007BAC03A10)~~
文摘In order to provide some preliminary recommendations for the sustainable use and management of croplands, land suitability evaluation for crops was carried out in Shouyang County which partly locates on the Loess Plateau suffering severe soil and water erosion and is characterized by ecological vulnerability and semi-arid climate. Here, land suitability for 4 local crops of maize, wheat, sorghum and millet under 2 cultivation senarios of tradition and mechanization was evaluated by a upscaling approach. The upscaling was implemented in a land form hierarchy which was composed of land unit, land facet and land site at 3 spatial levels. The IAO land suitability evaluation model for crops was revised by applying a meteorological revision index. Rresults showed that a polarized phenomenon occurred, which means that the most suitable class （S1） and the most unsuitable class （N2） were predominant in acreage percentage for all the 4 crops. Maize, millet and wheat were relatively more adaptive to be grown and should be ploughed in the traditional mode. Hence, future cropland use policy should pay more attention to the conversion of arable land to forestland and grassland in unsuitable areas and to more investment for agricultural production in suitable regions, and it is necessary to balance the relationship between the livelihood of local farmers and environmental protection to maintain a healthy and stable ecosystem.
基金Supported by the Foundation of Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture of Chinese Ministry of Agriculture (RDA0910)the Commonweal Foundation of China's National Academy(200990124)+1 种基金Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(40930101)National Key Technologies R & D Program of China(2006BAC08B0404)~~
文摘Since the increasing demand for arable land and low efficient and disordered use of rural residential land,land consolidation for rural settlement has become a hot issue in China.Many Chinese scientists studied the topic from different angles.However,there is no reference systematically summarizing and discussing feasibility of consolidating rural residential land into arable land.The authors listed and analyzed the calculation methods of consolidating rural residential land into arable land,and discussed the feasibility and reasonability of those methods.Moreover,this paper put forward the study orientation in this regard for providing references for relevant researches.
