通过经济学和地震学的不同学科交叉研究,利用Elliott经济波浪理论对地震序列结构进行分析,结果表明具有非常好的适用性,不仅解决了地震序列的分类和发展规律问题,而且提出了预测震级的等面积判定法。采用Elliott波浪理论图形化分析的方...通过经济学和地震学的不同学科交叉研究,利用Elliott经济波浪理论对地震序列结构进行分析,结果表明具有非常好的适用性,不仅解决了地震序列的分类和发展规律问题,而且提出了预测震级的等面积判定法。采用Elliott波浪理论图形化分析的方法,分析大震前的地震活动性的时空变化和地震周期,把地震序列的发震模式分为渐进型和突发型2类。依据Elliott相关市场分析理论精炼出的12种牛市波浪模式,把地震序列的发震规律归类为三角形、梯形和矩形3大类(12个小类)模式。在发震模式和发震规律的基础上提出了大震震级预测的等面积判定法,同时给出了地震序列空间范围选取规则和大震发生时间预测的经验性判定法。结论认为,学科之间既有差异性,又有很强的交融性,Elliott波浪理论在地震序列结构分析中表现出很高的适用性,不仅清楚地图形化了大地震的孕震过程,且理论化了地震序列触发模式,发震规律和震级预测,这将会在未来有效地提高地震趋势预测的概率水平。Through different interdisciplinary studies in economics and seismology, use Elliott wave theory to analyze the seismic sequence structure, the results showed that the applicability is very well, not only the classification and development law of earthquake sequences are solved, but the equal area judgement method which to predict the magnitude are also put forward. By using the graphical analysis of Elliott wave theory, Analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of seismicity before large earthquakes, the earthquake sequences are divided into 2 types, the progressive type and the flash type. According to the 12 bull market wave model of relevant Elliott market analysis theory. The earthquake regularity of the earthquake sequence is classified into 3 categories (12 small classes): triangle, trapezoid and rectangle. Based on the model and law of earthquake occurrence, the equal area determination method is put forward in forecast of earthquake magnitude. At the same time, the empirical method is given to predict the spatial range of earthquake sequence and the prediction of large earthquake occurrence time. At the same time, the empirical determination method is given to predict the spatial range of earthquake sequence and the occurrence time of large earthquake. The conclusion is that there are not only differences between subjects, but also a strong blend. Elliott wave theory showed a high applicability in the analysis of seismic sequence structure, not only make clear graphical seismogenic process of large earthquakes and put forward the theory of the earthquake sequence trigger mode, the law of earthquake prediction and the earthquake magnitude prediction, this will effectively improve the probability level of earthquake tendency prediction in the future.展开更多
2021年5月21日21时,云南大理白族自治州漾濞县发生M_(S)6.4地震。该地震的震中位于川滇块体的西南边界,是该区40多年来震级最大的一次地震。地震未产生地表破裂,余震也未沿震区附近已知的断裂分布。研究者针对这次地震的发震构造已有若...2021年5月21日21时,云南大理白族自治州漾濞县发生M_(S)6.4地震。该地震的震中位于川滇块体的西南边界,是该区40多年来震级最大的一次地震。地震未产生地表破裂,余震也未沿震区附近已知的断裂分布。研究者针对这次地震的发震构造已有若干研究结果,但采用不同数据、方法和思考角度对这些结果进行验证并同时补充新认识是必要的。文中利用云南地震台网观测资料分析了漾濞地震序列的时空分布特征,进行重新定位,并通过CAP(Cut and Paste)方法获取序列中较大地震的震源机制解与矩心深度。结果表明,漾濞地震的余震震源深度主要集中在4~13km,余震带总体呈NW-SE走向,空间分段性明显:主震震中北西侧余震稀少且分布相对集中,东南侧余震密集且余震带宽度变大;前震序列发生在主震震中的东南侧,与余震密集段的位置基本重叠,反映主震震中北西侧的稀疏余震应属于触发型,而主震破裂可能属于由震中向SE扩展的单侧破裂型。余震带的深度横剖面显示主震破裂具有明显的分段性,序列北西段的结构较为简单,显示出一个地震丛集,而南东段则相对复杂,很可能由2条倾向SW的高倾角断层组成。漾濞地震序列中29个M_(S)≥3.0地震的矩心深度主要分布于3~13km,震源机制解以右旋走滑型为主,大多存在一个NW-SE走向的高倾角节面,且具有一定的正断倾滑分量。主震是以右旋走滑为主的破裂所引发的,矩心深度为5.2km,与重定位所得的震源初始破裂深度8.9km较为接近,反映该地震发生在上地壳,也反映震区的地震活动深度偏浅。文中对2021年5月云南漾濞序列的时-空分布特征与震源机制解的分析,反映此次地震的发震断层产状及力学性质与NW走向的维西-乔后-巍山断裂较为一致,但位置不同,证实这次地震的发震构造是该断裂南段西侧一条SW陡倾的右旋走滑次级断裂。展开更多
文摘通过经济学和地震学的不同学科交叉研究,利用Elliott经济波浪理论对地震序列结构进行分析,结果表明具有非常好的适用性,不仅解决了地震序列的分类和发展规律问题,而且提出了预测震级的等面积判定法。采用Elliott波浪理论图形化分析的方法,分析大震前的地震活动性的时空变化和地震周期,把地震序列的发震模式分为渐进型和突发型2类。依据Elliott相关市场分析理论精炼出的12种牛市波浪模式,把地震序列的发震规律归类为三角形、梯形和矩形3大类(12个小类)模式。在发震模式和发震规律的基础上提出了大震震级预测的等面积判定法,同时给出了地震序列空间范围选取规则和大震发生时间预测的经验性判定法。结论认为,学科之间既有差异性,又有很强的交融性,Elliott波浪理论在地震序列结构分析中表现出很高的适用性,不仅清楚地图形化了大地震的孕震过程,且理论化了地震序列触发模式,发震规律和震级预测,这将会在未来有效地提高地震趋势预测的概率水平。Through different interdisciplinary studies in economics and seismology, use Elliott wave theory to analyze the seismic sequence structure, the results showed that the applicability is very well, not only the classification and development law of earthquake sequences are solved, but the equal area judgement method which to predict the magnitude are also put forward. By using the graphical analysis of Elliott wave theory, Analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of seismicity before large earthquakes, the earthquake sequences are divided into 2 types, the progressive type and the flash type. According to the 12 bull market wave model of relevant Elliott market analysis theory. The earthquake regularity of the earthquake sequence is classified into 3 categories (12 small classes): triangle, trapezoid and rectangle. Based on the model and law of earthquake occurrence, the equal area determination method is put forward in forecast of earthquake magnitude. At the same time, the empirical method is given to predict the spatial range of earthquake sequence and the prediction of large earthquake occurrence time. At the same time, the empirical determination method is given to predict the spatial range of earthquake sequence and the occurrence time of large earthquake. The conclusion is that there are not only differences between subjects, but also a strong blend. Elliott wave theory showed a high applicability in the analysis of seismic sequence structure, not only make clear graphical seismogenic process of large earthquakes and put forward the theory of the earthquake sequence trigger mode, the law of earthquake prediction and the earthquake magnitude prediction, this will effectively improve the probability level of earthquake tendency prediction in the future.
文摘2021年5月21日21时,云南大理白族自治州漾濞县发生M_(S)6.4地震。该地震的震中位于川滇块体的西南边界,是该区40多年来震级最大的一次地震。地震未产生地表破裂,余震也未沿震区附近已知的断裂分布。研究者针对这次地震的发震构造已有若干研究结果,但采用不同数据、方法和思考角度对这些结果进行验证并同时补充新认识是必要的。文中利用云南地震台网观测资料分析了漾濞地震序列的时空分布特征,进行重新定位,并通过CAP(Cut and Paste)方法获取序列中较大地震的震源机制解与矩心深度。结果表明,漾濞地震的余震震源深度主要集中在4~13km,余震带总体呈NW-SE走向,空间分段性明显:主震震中北西侧余震稀少且分布相对集中,东南侧余震密集且余震带宽度变大;前震序列发生在主震震中的东南侧,与余震密集段的位置基本重叠,反映主震震中北西侧的稀疏余震应属于触发型,而主震破裂可能属于由震中向SE扩展的单侧破裂型。余震带的深度横剖面显示主震破裂具有明显的分段性,序列北西段的结构较为简单,显示出一个地震丛集,而南东段则相对复杂,很可能由2条倾向SW的高倾角断层组成。漾濞地震序列中29个M_(S)≥3.0地震的矩心深度主要分布于3~13km,震源机制解以右旋走滑型为主,大多存在一个NW-SE走向的高倾角节面,且具有一定的正断倾滑分量。主震是以右旋走滑为主的破裂所引发的,矩心深度为5.2km,与重定位所得的震源初始破裂深度8.9km较为接近,反映该地震发生在上地壳,也反映震区的地震活动深度偏浅。文中对2021年5月云南漾濞序列的时-空分布特征与震源机制解的分析,反映此次地震的发震断层产状及力学性质与NW走向的维西-乔后-巍山断裂较为一致,但位置不同,证实这次地震的发震构造是该断裂南段西侧一条SW陡倾的右旋走滑次级断裂。
