[Objective] The aim of this study was to analyze and forecast the transmission trend of highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome（HP-PRRS）by mathematical model.[Method]The pigs were divided int...[Objective] The aim of this study was to analyze and forecast the transmission trend of highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome（HP-PRRS）by mathematical model.[Method]The pigs were divided into the susceptible population S,the incidence population I and the removed population R.Dynamics models of transmission rate β（t）,recovery rate γ（t）and incidence rate δ（t）were analyzed,and the mathematical models of diseased pigs each day I（t）and healthy pigs each day H（t）of HP-PRRS were established in transmission process.[Result]Transmission rate β（t）,recover rate γ（t）and incidence rate δ（t）were conformed to the results of the actual figures,and the mathematical models of diseased pigs each day I（t）and healthy pigs each day H（t）of HP-PRRS were accorded with the objective law of transmission.[Conclusion]This mathematical model could be better used to analyze the transmission trend of HP-PRRS.展开更多
文摘[Objective] The aim of this study was to analyze and forecast the transmission trend of highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome（HP-PRRS）by mathematical model.[Method]The pigs were divided into the susceptible population S,the incidence population I and the removed population R.Dynamics models of transmission rate β（t）,recovery rate γ（t）and incidence rate δ（t）were analyzed,and the mathematical models of diseased pigs each day I（t）and healthy pigs each day H（t）of HP-PRRS were established in transmission process.[Result]Transmission rate β（t）,recover rate γ（t）and incidence rate δ（t）were conformed to the results of the actual figures,and the mathematical models of diseased pigs each day I（t）and healthy pigs each day H（t）of HP-PRRS were accorded with the objective law of transmission.[Conclusion]This mathematical model could be better used to analyze the transmission trend of HP-PRRS.
