A novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019,named as the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)by the World Health Organization(WHO).This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geog...A novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019,named as the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)by the World Health Organization(WHO).This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread at the early stage of the transmission.A series of connectivity and risk analyses based on domestic and international travel networks were conducted using historical aggregated mobile phone data and air passenger itinerary data.We found that the cordon sanitaire of the primary city was likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city,with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China.We estimated that there were 59,912 international air passengers,of which 834(95%uncertainty interval:478–1,349)had COVID-19 infection,with a strong correlation seen between the predicted risks of importation and the number of imported cases found.Given the limited understanding of emerging infectious diseases in the very early stages of outbreaks,our approaches and findings in assessing travel patterns and risk of transmission can help guide public health preparedness and intervention design for new COVID-19 waves caused by variants of concern and future pandemics to effectively limit transmission beyond its initial extent.展开更多
基金supported by the grants from the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(Grant Nos.:INV-024911 and OPP1134076)the European Union Horizon 2020(Grant No.:MOOD 874850)+8 种基金the National Natural Science Fund of China(Grant Nos.:81773498,71771213 and 91846301)National Science and Technology Major Project of China(Grant No.:2016ZX10004222-009)Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader(Grant No.:18XD1400300)Hunan Science and Technology Plan Project(Grant Nos.:2017RS3040 and 2018JJ1034)supported by funding from the Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation(Grant Nos.:OPP1106427,OPP1032350,OPP1134076,and OPP1094793)the Clinton Health Access Initiative,the UK Department for International Development(DFID)and the Wellcome Trust(Grant Nos.:106866/Z/15/Z and 204613/Z/16/Z)supported by funding from the National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China(Grant No.:81525023)Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader(Grant No.:18XD1400300)the United States National Institutes of Health(Comprehensive International Program for Research on AIDS grant U19 AI51915).
文摘A novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019,named as the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)by the World Health Organization(WHO).This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread at the early stage of the transmission.A series of connectivity and risk analyses based on domestic and international travel networks were conducted using historical aggregated mobile phone data and air passenger itinerary data.We found that the cordon sanitaire of the primary city was likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city,with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China.We estimated that there were 59,912 international air passengers,of which 834(95%uncertainty interval:478–1,349)had COVID-19 infection,with a strong correlation seen between the predicted risks of importation and the number of imported cases found.Given the limited understanding of emerging infectious diseases in the very early stages of outbreaks,our approaches and findings in assessing travel patterns and risk of transmission can help guide public health preparedness and intervention design for new COVID-19 waves caused by variants of concern and future pandemics to effectively limit transmission beyond its initial extent.
