Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers f...Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.展开更多
In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated.The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were ...In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated.The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed.The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan.The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province.The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score(TS)of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64.The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score(FSS)verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87.The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7·20.The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye(Cempaka)over south China.The IVT over the lower troposphere(<500 hPa)showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level,especially in the planetary boundary layer(<700 hPa).More practical technique needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall,as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.展开更多
This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional M...This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.展开更多
This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(EC...This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified.Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than NCEP.In general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China.Moreover,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the ECWMF.The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.展开更多
By deriving the discrete equation of the parameterized equation for the New Medium-Range Forecast(NMRF)boundary layer scheme in the GRAPES model,the adjusted discrete equation for temperature is obviously different fr...By deriving the discrete equation of the parameterized equation for the New Medium-Range Forecast(NMRF)boundary layer scheme in the GRAPES model,the adjusted discrete equation for temperature is obviously different from the original equation under the background of hydrostatic equilibrium and adiabatic hypothesis.In the present research,three discrete equations for temperature in the NMRF boundary layer scheme are applied,namely the original(hereafter NMRF),the adjustment(hereafter NMRF-gocp),and the one in the YSU boundary-layer scheme(hereafter NMRF-TZ).The results show that the deviations of height,temperature,U and V wind in the boundary layer in the NMRF-gocp and NMRF-TZ experiments are smaller than those in the NMRF experiment and the deviations in the NMRF-gocp experiment are the smallest.The deviations of humidity are complex for the different forecasting lead time in the three experiments.Moreover,there are obvious diurnal variations of deviations from these variables,where the diurnal variations of deviations from height and temperature are similar and those from U and V wind are also similar.However,the diurnal variation of humidity is relatively complicated.The root means square errors of 2m temperature(T2m)and 10m speed(V10m)from the three experiments show that the error of NMRF-gocp is the smallest and that of NMRF is the biggest.There is also a diurnal variation of T2m and V10m,where T2m has double peaks and V10m has only one peak.Comparison of the discrete equations between NMRF and NMRF-gocp experiments shows that the deviation of temperature is likely to be caused by the calculation of vertical eddy diffusive coefficients of heating,which also leads to the deviations of other elements.展开更多
To support short-range weather forecasts,a high-resolution model(1km)is developed and technically upgraded in the South China Regional Center,including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and the predictor-corr...To support short-range weather forecasts,a high-resolution model(1km)is developed and technically upgraded in the South China Regional Center,including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and the predictor-corrector method for semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)in model dynamical core,as well as the improvement of physical parameterization.Furthermore,the multi-process parallel I/O and parallel nudging techniques are developed and have facilitated rapid updating in the assimilation prediction system and fast-output post processing process.The experimental results show that the improved 3D reference scheme and upgraded physic schemes can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and stability with a longer integration time step.The batch test shows that the precipitation forecast performance of 1-km model is significantly better than that of 3-km model.The 1-km model is in operation with a rapidly updating cycle at 12-minute intervals,which can be applied to short-range forecasts and nowcasting.展开更多
In the present study,the performance of the GRAPES model in wind simulation over south China was assessed.The simulations were evaluated by using surface observations and two sounding stations in south China.The resul...In the present study,the performance of the GRAPES model in wind simulation over south China was assessed.The simulations were evaluated by using surface observations and two sounding stations in south China.The results show that the GRAPES model could provide a reliable simulation of the distribution and diurnal variation of the wind.It showed a generally overestimated southerly wind speed especially over the Pearl River Delta region and the south of Jiangxi Province as well as the coastal region over south China.GRAPES also exhibited a large number of stations with the opposite surface wind directions over the east of Guangxi and the south of Jiangxi during the nocturnalto-morning period,as well as an overall overestimation of surface wind over the coastal regions during the afternoon.Although GRAPES could simulate the general evolutional characteristics of vertical wind profile,it underestimated wind speed above 900 hPa and overestimated wind speed below 900 hPa.Though the parameterization scheme of gravity wave drag proved to be an effective method to alleviate the systematic deviation of wind simulation,GRAPES still exhibited large errors in wind simulation,especially in the lower and upper troposphere.展开更多
基金Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong Provincial Water Resources Department (2022-01)Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(2022A1515011870)+1 种基金China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team of Tropical Meteorology (CMA2023ZD08)Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (2022LASW-B18)。
文摘Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1507602)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175105,41505084)Project of Guangzhou Science and Technology(2019B111101002)。
文摘In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated.The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed.The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan.The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province.The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score(TS)of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64.The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score(FSS)verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87.The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7·20.The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye(Cempaka)over south China.The IVT over the lower troposphere(<500 hPa)showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level,especially in the planetary boundary layer(<700 hPa).More practical technique needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall,as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1506901)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41505084)Program of Science and Technology Department of Guangdong Province (201804020038)。
文摘This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1506901)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41505084)Guangzhou Science and Technology Project(201804020038)
文摘This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified.Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than NCEP.In general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China.Moreover,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the ECWMF.The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1506902)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175105,U2142213)Special Fund of China Meteorological Administration for Innovation and Development(CXFZ2021Z006)。
文摘By deriving the discrete equation of the parameterized equation for the New Medium-Range Forecast(NMRF)boundary layer scheme in the GRAPES model,the adjusted discrete equation for temperature is obviously different from the original equation under the background of hydrostatic equilibrium and adiabatic hypothesis.In the present research,three discrete equations for temperature in the NMRF boundary layer scheme are applied,namely the original(hereafter NMRF),the adjustment(hereafter NMRF-gocp),and the one in the YSU boundary-layer scheme(hereafter NMRF-TZ).The results show that the deviations of height,temperature,U and V wind in the boundary layer in the NMRF-gocp and NMRF-TZ experiments are smaller than those in the NMRF experiment and the deviations in the NMRF-gocp experiment are the smallest.The deviations of humidity are complex for the different forecasting lead time in the three experiments.Moreover,there are obvious diurnal variations of deviations from these variables,where the diurnal variations of deviations from height and temperature are similar and those from U and V wind are also similar.However,the diurnal variation of humidity is relatively complicated.The root means square errors of 2m temperature(T2m)and 10m speed(V10m)from the three experiments show that the error of NMRF-gocp is the smallest and that of NMRF is the biggest.There is also a diurnal variation of T2m and V10m,where T2m has double peaks and V10m has only one peak.Comparison of the discrete equations between NMRF and NMRF-gocp experiments shows that the deviation of temperature is likely to be caused by the calculation of vertical eddy diffusive coefficients of heating,which also leads to the deviations of other elements.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1506901)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U18114641010846)。
文摘To support short-range weather forecasts,a high-resolution model(1km)is developed and technically upgraded in the South China Regional Center,including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and the predictor-corrector method for semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)in model dynamical core,as well as the improvement of physical parameterization.Furthermore,the multi-process parallel I/O and parallel nudging techniques are developed and have facilitated rapid updating in the assimilation prediction system and fast-output post processing process.The experimental results show that the improved 3D reference scheme and upgraded physic schemes can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and stability with a longer integration time step.The batch test shows that the precipitation forecast performance of 1-km model is significantly better than that of 3-km model.The 1-km model is in operation with a rapidly updating cycle at 12-minute intervals,which can be applied to short-range forecasts and nowcasting.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1507602)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41505084,41875079)+1 种基金Guangzhou Science and Technology Project(201804020038)Guangdong Province Public Welfare Research and Capacity Construction Project(2017B020218003)
文摘In the present study,the performance of the GRAPES model in wind simulation over south China was assessed.The simulations were evaluated by using surface observations and two sounding stations in south China.The results show that the GRAPES model could provide a reliable simulation of the distribution and diurnal variation of the wind.It showed a generally overestimated southerly wind speed especially over the Pearl River Delta region and the south of Jiangxi Province as well as the coastal region over south China.GRAPES also exhibited a large number of stations with the opposite surface wind directions over the east of Guangxi and the south of Jiangxi during the nocturnalto-morning period,as well as an overall overestimation of surface wind over the coastal regions during the afternoon.Although GRAPES could simulate the general evolutional characteristics of vertical wind profile,it underestimated wind speed above 900 hPa and overestimated wind speed below 900 hPa.Though the parameterization scheme of gravity wave drag proved to be an effective method to alleviate the systematic deviation of wind simulation,GRAPES still exhibited large errors in wind simulation,especially in the lower and upper troposphere.
