Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain er...Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） AIB greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 2o-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index （MFI） shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, whieh suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index （PCI） shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.展开更多
Rainfall erosivity is defined as the potential of rain to cause erosion.It has great potential for application in studies related to natural disasters,in addition to water erosion.The objectives of this study were:ⅰ)...Rainfall erosivity is defined as the potential of rain to cause erosion.It has great potential for application in studies related to natural disasters,in addition to water erosion.The objectives of this study were:ⅰ)to model the Rday using a seasonal model for the Mountainous Region of the State of Rio de Janeiro(MRRJ);ⅱ)to adjust thresholds of the Rday index based on catastrophic events which occurred in the last two decades;andⅲ)to map the maximum daily rainfall erosivity(Rmaxday)to assess the region's suscepti-bility to rainfall hazards according to the established Rday limits.The fitted Rday model presented a satisfactory result,thereby enabling its application as a Rday estimate in MRRJ.Events that resulted in Rday>1500 MJ ha-1.mm.h-1.day-1 were those with the highest number of fatalities.The spatial distribution of Rmaxday showed that the entire MRRJ has presented values that can cause major rainfall.The Rday index proved to be a promising indicator of rainfall disasters,which is more effective than those normally used that are only based on quantity(mm)and/or intensity(mm.h-1)of the rain.展开更多
基金FAPEMIG (PPM X 45-16)CNPqpartially funded by CNPq 308035/2013-5
文摘Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） AIB greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 2o-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index （MFI） shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, whieh suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index （PCI） shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.
基金We acknowledge the Coordination of Superior Level Staff Improvement-CAPES[grant number 88882.306661/2018-01]the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development-CNPQ[grant number 301556/2017-2]for supporting and funding this work.
文摘Rainfall erosivity is defined as the potential of rain to cause erosion.It has great potential for application in studies related to natural disasters,in addition to water erosion.The objectives of this study were:ⅰ)to model the Rday using a seasonal model for the Mountainous Region of the State of Rio de Janeiro(MRRJ);ⅱ)to adjust thresholds of the Rday index based on catastrophic events which occurred in the last two decades;andⅲ)to map the maximum daily rainfall erosivity(Rmaxday)to assess the region's suscepti-bility to rainfall hazards according to the established Rday limits.The fitted Rday model presented a satisfactory result,thereby enabling its application as a Rday estimate in MRRJ.Events that resulted in Rday>1500 MJ ha-1.mm.h-1.day-1 were those with the highest number of fatalities.The spatial distribution of Rmaxday showed that the entire MRRJ has presented values that can cause major rainfall.The Rday index proved to be a promising indicator of rainfall disasters,which is more effective than those normally used that are only based on quantity(mm)and/or intensity(mm.h-1)of the rain.
