自改革开放以来,中国经济经历了快速增长,已经成为亚洲第一、世界第二的综合经济体。然而,在世界经济下行、国际形势多变、国内改革经历阵痛的多重背景下,中国宏观经济数据通常呈现出结构突变特征,且不同部门的宏观经济变量具有较强的...自改革开放以来,中国经济经历了快速增长,已经成为亚洲第一、世界第二的综合经济体。然而,在世界经济下行、国际形势多变、国内改革经历阵痛的多重背景下,中国宏观经济数据通常呈现出结构突变特征,且不同部门的宏观经济变量具有较强的联动特征。了解中国宏观经济中的结构突变现象,对于政府部门更好地认知世界经济的运行风险和不确定性,完善宏观经济调控体系,推动宏观经济总体稳定、高质量发展具有重要作用。鉴于此,本文利用含有多个未知结构突变的因子模型对中国23个宏观经济时间序列进行建模,并进一步借鉴Ma and Tu(2023a)中的估计方法对宏观经济数据中的结构突变现象进行分析。结果表明,中国宏观经济数据在1990—2022年一共经历了6次结构突变,其发生的时间点与重大的历史事件紧密相关,例如邓小平南方谈话和党的十四大召开、2003年“非典”疫情、2020年新冠疫情等。此外,与目前研究中国宏观经济结构突变的文献相比,本文得益于因子模型的构造和精准的变点估计方法,能够识别出宏观经济系统中更多的结构变点,更好地刻画中国宏观经济的动态发展。展开更多
Dear Editor,Stress initiates a cascade of hormonal and behavioral responses that enable an organism to adapt to new environmental pressures.An unbalanced stress response can lead to dysregulation of the hypothalamic-p...Dear Editor,Stress initiates a cascade of hormonal and behavioral responses that enable an organism to adapt to new environmental pressures.An unbalanced stress response can lead to dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis,which may lead to the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD).展开更多
Regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data has recently attracted a great deal of attention partly due to their increasing occurrences in many fields.In this paper,we discuss a type of such data,multiv...Regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data has recently attracted a great deal of attention partly due to their increasing occurrences in many fields.In this paper,we discuss a type of such data,multivariate current status data,where in addition to the complex interval data structure,one also faces dependent or informative censoring.For inference,a sieve maximum likelihood estimation procedure is developed and the proposed estimators of regression parameters are shown to be asymptotically consistent and efficient.For the implementation of the method,an EM algorithm is provided,and the results from an extensive simulation study demonstrate the validity and good performance of the proposed inference procedure.For an illustration,the proposed approach is applied to a tumorigenicity experiment.展开更多
文摘自改革开放以来,中国经济经历了快速增长,已经成为亚洲第一、世界第二的综合经济体。然而,在世界经济下行、国际形势多变、国内改革经历阵痛的多重背景下,中国宏观经济数据通常呈现出结构突变特征,且不同部门的宏观经济变量具有较强的联动特征。了解中国宏观经济中的结构突变现象,对于政府部门更好地认知世界经济的运行风险和不确定性,完善宏观经济调控体系,推动宏观经济总体稳定、高质量发展具有重要作用。鉴于此,本文利用含有多个未知结构突变的因子模型对中国23个宏观经济时间序列进行建模,并进一步借鉴Ma and Tu(2023a)中的估计方法对宏观经济数据中的结构突变现象进行分析。结果表明,中国宏观经济数据在1990—2022年一共经历了6次结构突变,其发生的时间点与重大的历史事件紧密相关,例如邓小平南方谈话和党的十四大召开、2003年“非典”疫情、2020年新冠疫情等。此外,与目前研究中国宏观经济结构突变的文献相比,本文得益于因子模型的构造和精准的变点估计方法,能够识别出宏观经济系统中更多的结构变点,更好地刻画中国宏观经济的动态发展。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31871054)Research Funds of Center for Advanced Interdisciplinary Science and Biomedicine of IHM(QYPY20230031).
文摘Dear Editor,Stress initiates a cascade of hormonal and behavioral responses that enable an organism to adapt to new environmental pressures.An unbalanced stress response can lead to dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis,which may lead to the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD).
基金supported by Grants from the Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Number 11731011]a grant from key project of the Yunnan Province Foundation,China[Grant Number 202001BB050049].
文摘Regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data has recently attracted a great deal of attention partly due to their increasing occurrences in many fields.In this paper,we discuss a type of such data,multivariate current status data,where in addition to the complex interval data structure,one also faces dependent or informative censoring.For inference,a sieve maximum likelihood estimation procedure is developed and the proposed estimators of regression parameters are shown to be asymptotically consistent and efficient.For the implementation of the method,an EM algorithm is provided,and the results from an extensive simulation study demonstrate the validity and good performance of the proposed inference procedure.For an illustration,the proposed approach is applied to a tumorigenicity experiment.
