为解决能源危机问题,提高能源利用率,综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)成为发展创新型能源系统的重要方向。准确的多元负荷预测对IES的经济调度和优化运行有着重要的影响,而借助混沌理论能够进一步挖掘IES多元负荷潜在的耦...为解决能源危机问题,提高能源利用率,综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)成为发展创新型能源系统的重要方向。准确的多元负荷预测对IES的经济调度和优化运行有着重要的影响,而借助混沌理论能够进一步挖掘IES多元负荷潜在的耦合特性。提出了一种基于多变量相空间重构(multivariate phase space reconstruction,MPSR)和径向基函数神经网络(radial basis function neural network,RBFNN)相结合的IES超短期电冷热负荷预测模型。首先,分析了IES中能源子系统之间的耦合关系,运用Pearson相关性分析定量描述多元负荷和气象特征的相关性。然后,采用C-C法对时间序列进行MPSR以进一步挖掘电冷热负荷和气象特征在时间上的耦合特性。最后,利用RBFNN模型对电冷热负荷间耦合关系进行学习并预测。实验结果表明,所提方法有效挖掘并学习电冷热负荷在时间上的耦合特性,且在不同样本容量下具有良好且稳定的预测效果。展开更多
Currently, the differences in gravity flow deposits within different systems tracts in continental lacustrine basins are not clear. Taking the middle submember of the third member of Paleogene Shahejie Formation(Sha 3...Currently, the differences in gravity flow deposits within different systems tracts in continental lacustrine basins are not clear. Taking the middle submember of the third member of Paleogene Shahejie Formation(Sha 3 Member) in the Shishen 100 area of the Dongying Sag in the Bohai Bay Basin as an example, the depositional architecture of sublacustrine fans during forced regression and the impact of the fourth-order base-level changes on their growth were investigated using cores, well logs and 3D seismic data. Sublacustrine fans were mainly caused by hyperpycnal flow during the fourth-order base-level rise, while the proportion of slump-induced sublacustrine fans gradually increased during the late fourth-order base-level fall. From rising to falling of the fourth-order base-level, the extension distance of channels inside hyperpycnal-fed sublacustrine fans reduced progressively, resulting in the transformation in their morphology from a significantly channelized fan to a skirt-like fan. Furthermore, the depositional architecture of distributary channel complexes in sublacustrine fans changed from vertical aggradation to lateral migration, and the lateral size of individual channel steadily decreased. The lobe complex's architectural patterns evolved from compensational stacking of lateral migration to aggradational stacking, and the lateral size of individual lobe steadily grew. This study deepens the understanding of depositional features of gravity flow in high-frequency sequence stratigraphy and provides a geological foundation for the fine development of sublacustrine fan reservoirs.展开更多
文摘为解决能源危机问题,提高能源利用率,综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)成为发展创新型能源系统的重要方向。准确的多元负荷预测对IES的经济调度和优化运行有着重要的影响,而借助混沌理论能够进一步挖掘IES多元负荷潜在的耦合特性。提出了一种基于多变量相空间重构(multivariate phase space reconstruction,MPSR)和径向基函数神经网络(radial basis function neural network,RBFNN)相结合的IES超短期电冷热负荷预测模型。首先,分析了IES中能源子系统之间的耦合关系,运用Pearson相关性分析定量描述多元负荷和气象特征的相关性。然后,采用C-C法对时间序列进行MPSR以进一步挖掘电冷热负荷和气象特征在时间上的耦合特性。最后,利用RBFNN模型对电冷热负荷间耦合关系进行学习并预测。实验结果表明,所提方法有效挖掘并学习电冷热负荷在时间上的耦合特性,且在不同样本容量下具有良好且稳定的预测效果。
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41872113,42172109,42202170)CNPC–China University of Petroleum (Beijing) Strategic Cooperation Science and Technology Project (ZLZX2020-02)。
文摘Currently, the differences in gravity flow deposits within different systems tracts in continental lacustrine basins are not clear. Taking the middle submember of the third member of Paleogene Shahejie Formation(Sha 3 Member) in the Shishen 100 area of the Dongying Sag in the Bohai Bay Basin as an example, the depositional architecture of sublacustrine fans during forced regression and the impact of the fourth-order base-level changes on their growth were investigated using cores, well logs and 3D seismic data. Sublacustrine fans were mainly caused by hyperpycnal flow during the fourth-order base-level rise, while the proportion of slump-induced sublacustrine fans gradually increased during the late fourth-order base-level fall. From rising to falling of the fourth-order base-level, the extension distance of channels inside hyperpycnal-fed sublacustrine fans reduced progressively, resulting in the transformation in their morphology from a significantly channelized fan to a skirt-like fan. Furthermore, the depositional architecture of distributary channel complexes in sublacustrine fans changed from vertical aggradation to lateral migration, and the lateral size of individual channel steadily decreased. The lobe complex's architectural patterns evolved from compensational stacking of lateral migration to aggradational stacking, and the lateral size of individual lobe steadily grew. This study deepens the understanding of depositional features of gravity flow in high-frequency sequence stratigraphy and provides a geological foundation for the fine development of sublacustrine fan reservoirs.
