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多代理人系统在商业街消费者行为模拟中的应用--以上海南京东路为例 被引量:21
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作者 朱玮 王德 harry timmermans 《地理学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2009年第4期445-455,共11页
用模型方法研究消费者行为经历了从集合模型到个体模型的过程。随着计算机技术的进步,近十余年来多代理人技术得到了长足的发展。当前,将消费者个体行为模型和多代理人系统相结合来模拟商业街消费者活动,已经成为相关研究和实践领域的... 用模型方法研究消费者行为经历了从集合模型到个体模型的过程。随着计算机技术的进步,近十余年来多代理人技术得到了长足的发展。当前,将消费者个体行为模型和多代理人系统相结合来模拟商业街消费者活动,已经成为相关研究和实践领域的前沿方法。其主要优点在于能够使相关人员以单个消费者为基础,整合复杂的相关因素,预测整体或局部商业空间的动态运行效果,作为规划开发的依据。本文介绍由笔者基于NetLogo开发的一个模拟商业街消费者行为的多代理人模拟平台,包括系统的建构和模拟的流程。该模拟系统的核心由四个基于有限理性原理的消费者决策模型构成:回家决策、方向选择决策、休息决策、商店光顾决策。然后应用这个平台于研究上海南京东路消费者行为的实例。该数据收集于2007年,现场记录了消费者在南京东路的活动过程,并被用于拟合行为模型。将模拟的代理人个体行为集合后,于三方面同观察到的消费者实际行为作比较,包括从事不同活动的消费者数量随时间的变化、在各街道段中活动的消费者数量随时间的变化,以及单个商店中的消费者人次和延时;同时分析了模拟中的问题。结果显示该模拟平台总体上能够较好地预测消费者集合行为。 展开更多
关键词 多代理人系统 NETLOGO 消费者行为 决策模型 模拟 商业街 南京东路
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Analysis of Metro Station Ridership Considering Spatial Heterogeneity 被引量:5
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作者 GAN Zuoxian FENG Tao +2 位作者 YANG Min harry timmermans LUO Jinyu 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2019年第6期1065-1077,共13页
This study aims to explore the role of spatial heterogeneity in ridership analysis and examine the relationship between built environment, station attributes and urban rapid transit ridership at the station level.Alth... This study aims to explore the role of spatial heterogeneity in ridership analysis and examine the relationship between built environment, station attributes and urban rapid transit ridership at the station level.Although spatial heterogeneity has been widely acknowledged in spatial data analysis, it has been rarely considered in travel behavior studies.Four models(three global models-ordinary least squares(OLS), spatial lag model(SLM), spatial error model(SEM) and one local model-geographically weighted regression(GWR) model) are estimated separately to explore the relationship between various independent variables and station ridership, and identify the influence of spatial heterogeneity.Using the data of built environment and station characteristics, the results of diagnostic identify evidence the existence of spatial heterogeneity in station ridership for the metro network in Nanjing, China.Results of comparing the various goodness-of-fit indicators show that, the GWR model yields the best fit of the data, performance followed by the SEM, SLM and OLS model.The results also demonstrate that population, number of lines, number of feeder buses, number of exits, road density and proportion residential area have a significant impact on station ridership.Moreover, the study pays special attention to the spatial variation in the coefficients of the independent variables and their statistical significance.It underlines the importance of taking spatial heterogeneity into account in the station ridership analysis and the decision-making in urban planning. 展开更多
关键词 SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY RAPID TRANSIT ridership built environment STATION level SPATIAL models
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Networked Individual in Networked City: Reviewing Social Network in Transportation Literature
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作者 Fariya Sharmeen Pauline van den Berg harry timmermans 《Social Networking》 2014年第3期147-149,共3页
Editorial
关键词 EDITORIAL
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Multi-state supernetworks:recent progress and prospects 被引量:16
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作者 Feixiong Liao Theo Arentze harry timmermans 《Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition)》 2014年第1期13-27,共15页
Supernetworks have long been adopted to address multi-dimensional choice problems, which are thorny to solve for classic singular networks. Originated from combining transport mode and route choice into a multi-modal ... Supernetworks have long been adopted to address multi-dimensional choice problems, which are thorny to solve for classic singular networks. Originated from combining transport mode and route choice into a multi-modal network, supernetworks have been extended into multi-state networks to include activity-travel scheduling, centered around activity-based models of travel demand. A key feature of the network extensions is that multiple choice facets pertaining to conducting a full activity program can be modeled in a consistent and integrative fashion. Thus, interdependencies and constraints between related choice facets can be readily captured. Given this advantage of integrity, the modeling of supernetwork has become an emerging topic in transportation research. This paper summarizes the recent progress in modeling multi-state supernetworks and discusses future prospects. 展开更多
关键词 SUPERNETWORK MULTI-MODAL MULTI-STATE activity-based models
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Synchronization of home departure and arrival times in dual earner households with children:Panel regression model of time gaps 被引量:1
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作者 Bilin Han harry timmermans 《Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition)》 CSCD 2019年第5期504-513,共10页
Organizing schedules and allocating time to different activities is always a challenge in dual-earner households,especially when they have children.Parents may need to link their schedule to those of their children to... Organizing schedules and allocating time to different activities is always a challenge in dual-earner households,especially when they have children.Parents may need to link their schedule to those of their children to allow them escorting their children to school or to take care or be with their children at home.This paper reports the results of an analysis of the degree of synchronization of home departure and arrival times in dual earner households with children,where the degree of synchronization is defined as the gap between departure and arrival times of a parent and child.Using activity-travel diary data of different household members,a random parameters regression model is estimated to examine differences in time gaps in home departure and arrival times between parents and children as a function of gender,day of the week,age of the youngest child,and other socio-demographic characteristics.The results of the analysis provide insight into factors influencing the degree of synchronization and coordination of double activity-travel scheduling decisions in households with children.Findings indicate that gender,number of children in the household,age of the youngest child,travel within or outside peak hours,day of the week,transport mode used for the work commute and household income level significantly affect time gaps,especially arrival time gaps. 展开更多
关键词 HOME DEPARTURE and ARRIVAL TIMES SYNCHRONIZATION Time gap Dual-earner households Random parameters PANEL regression model
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