BACKGROUND: Acute liver failure(ALF) is an acute severe deterioration of liver function with high mortality. Early and accurate prognostic assessment of patients with ALF is critically important. Although the model fo...BACKGROUND: Acute liver failure(ALF) is an acute severe deterioration of liver function with high mortality. Early and accurate prognostic assessment of patients with ALF is critically important. Although the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) scores and King’s College Hospital(KCH) criteria are well-accepted as predictive tools, their accuracy is unsatisfactory.The indocyanine green(ICG) clearance test(ICGR15, ICG retention rate at the 15 minutes) is a sensitive indicator of liver function. In this study, we investigated the efficacy of the ICGR15 for the short-term prognosis in patients with ALF. We compared the predictive value of ICGR15 with the MELD scores and KCH criteria.METHODS: Sixty-nine patients who had been diagnosed with ALF were recruited retrospectively. ICGR15 had been performed by ICG pulse spectrophotometry and relevant clinical and laboratory indices were analyzed within 24 hours of diagnosis.In addition, the MELD scores and KCH criteria were calculated.RESULTS: The three-month mortality of all patients was 47.83%.Age, serum total bilirubin and creatinine concentrations,international normalized ratio for prothrombin time, ICGR15,MELD scores and KCH criteria differed significantly between surviving and deceased patients. A positive correlation was observed between ICGR15 and MELD scores(r=0.328, P=0.006).The ICGR15-MELD model, Logit(P)=0.096×ICGR15+0.174 ×MELD score–9.346, was constructed by logistic regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.855. When set the cut-off point to-0.4684, the sensitivity was 87.90% and specificity, 72.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ICGR15-MELD model(0.855) was significantly higher than that of the ICGR15(0.793), MELD scores(0.776) and KCH criteria(0.659).Based on this cut-off value, the patients were divided into two groups. The mortality was 74.36% in the first group(ICGR15-MELD≥-0.4686) and 13.33% in the second group(ICGR15-MELD<-0.4686), with a significant difference between the two groups(χ2=25.307, P=0.000).CONCLUSION: The ICGR15-MELD model is superior to the ICGR15, MELD scores, and KCH criteria in predicting the shortterm prognosis of patients with ALF.展开更多
Background:Non-thyroidal illness syndrome(NTIS)develops in a large proportion of critically ill patients and is associated with high risk for death.We aimed to investigate the correlation between NTIS and liver failur...Background:Non-thyroidal illness syndrome(NTIS)develops in a large proportion of critically ill patients and is associated with high risk for death.We aimed to investigate the correlation between NTIS and liver failure,and the short-term mortality of patients with these conditions.Methods:The clinical data of 87 patients with liver failure were collected retrospectively,73 of them were randomly selected for an observational study and to establish prognostic models,and 14 for model validation.Another 73 sex-and age-matched patients with mild chronic hepatitis were randomly selected as a control group.Serum free triiodothyronine(FT3),free thyroxine(FT4),and thyroid-stimulating hormone(TSH)were measured.The clinical characteristics of patients with liver failure and NTIS were analyzed.The follow-up of patients lasted for 3 months.Additionally,the values for predicting short-term mortality of model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP),chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment(CLIF-SOFA)scores,FT3-MELD model,and FT3 were evaluated.Results:The observation group had significantly lower FT3(2.79±0.71 vs.4.43±0.75 pmol/L,P<0.001)and TSH[0.618(0.186-1.185)vs.1.800(1.570-2.590)mIU/L,P<0.001],and higher FT4(19.51±6.26 vs.14.47±2.19 pmol/L,P<0.001)than the control group.NTIS was diagnosed in 49 of the patients with liver failure(67.12%).In the observation group,patients with NTIS had a higher mortality rate than those without(63.27%vs.25.00%,P=0.002).Across the whole cohort,the 3-month mortality was 50.68%.The international normalized ratios(INR)were 2.40±1.41 in survivors and 3.53±1.81 in deaths(P=0.004),the creatinine(Cr)concentrations were 73.27±36.94μmol/L and 117.08±87.98μmol/L(P=0.008),the FT3 concentrations were 3.13±0.59 pmol/L and 2.47±0.68 pmol/L(P<0.001),the MELD scores were 22.19±6.64 and 29.57±7.99(P<0.001),the CTP scores were 10.67±1.53 and 11.78±1.25(P=0.001),and the CLIF-SOFA scores were 8.42±1.68 and 10.16±2.03(P<0.001),respectively.FT3 was negatively correlated with MELD score(r=−0.430,P<0.001).An FT3-MELD model was established by subjecting FT3 concentration and MELD score to logistic regression analysis using the following formula:Logit(P)=−1.337×FT3+0.114×MELD+0.880.The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was 0.827 and the optimal cut-off value was 0.4523.The corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 67.6%and 91.7%.The areas under the ROC curve for FT3 concentration,MELD score,CTP score,and CLIF-SOFA score were 0.809,0.779,0.699,and 0.737,respectively.Conclusions:Patients with liver failure often develop NTIS.FT3-MELD score perform better than CTP and CLIF-SOFA scores in predicting mortality in patients with liver failure.Thus,the FT3-MELD model could be of great value for the evaluation of the short-term mortality of such patients.展开更多
基金supported by a grant from the Foundation of the Ministry of Health,China(2008ZX1005)
文摘BACKGROUND: Acute liver failure(ALF) is an acute severe deterioration of liver function with high mortality. Early and accurate prognostic assessment of patients with ALF is critically important. Although the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) scores and King’s College Hospital(KCH) criteria are well-accepted as predictive tools, their accuracy is unsatisfactory.The indocyanine green(ICG) clearance test(ICGR15, ICG retention rate at the 15 minutes) is a sensitive indicator of liver function. In this study, we investigated the efficacy of the ICGR15 for the short-term prognosis in patients with ALF. We compared the predictive value of ICGR15 with the MELD scores and KCH criteria.METHODS: Sixty-nine patients who had been diagnosed with ALF were recruited retrospectively. ICGR15 had been performed by ICG pulse spectrophotometry and relevant clinical and laboratory indices were analyzed within 24 hours of diagnosis.In addition, the MELD scores and KCH criteria were calculated.RESULTS: The three-month mortality of all patients was 47.83%.Age, serum total bilirubin and creatinine concentrations,international normalized ratio for prothrombin time, ICGR15,MELD scores and KCH criteria differed significantly between surviving and deceased patients. A positive correlation was observed between ICGR15 and MELD scores(r=0.328, P=0.006).The ICGR15-MELD model, Logit(P)=0.096×ICGR15+0.174 ×MELD score–9.346, was constructed by logistic regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.855. When set the cut-off point to-0.4684, the sensitivity was 87.90% and specificity, 72.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ICGR15-MELD model(0.855) was significantly higher than that of the ICGR15(0.793), MELD scores(0.776) and KCH criteria(0.659).Based on this cut-off value, the patients were divided into two groups. The mortality was 74.36% in the first group(ICGR15-MELD≥-0.4686) and 13.33% in the second group(ICGR15-MELD<-0.4686), with a significant difference between the two groups(χ2=25.307, P=0.000).CONCLUSION: The ICGR15-MELD model is superior to the ICGR15, MELD scores, and KCH criteria in predicting the shortterm prognosis of patients with ALF.
基金a grant from the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(2018ZX10725506-002).
文摘Background:Non-thyroidal illness syndrome(NTIS)develops in a large proportion of critically ill patients and is associated with high risk for death.We aimed to investigate the correlation between NTIS and liver failure,and the short-term mortality of patients with these conditions.Methods:The clinical data of 87 patients with liver failure were collected retrospectively,73 of them were randomly selected for an observational study and to establish prognostic models,and 14 for model validation.Another 73 sex-and age-matched patients with mild chronic hepatitis were randomly selected as a control group.Serum free triiodothyronine(FT3),free thyroxine(FT4),and thyroid-stimulating hormone(TSH)were measured.The clinical characteristics of patients with liver failure and NTIS were analyzed.The follow-up of patients lasted for 3 months.Additionally,the values for predicting short-term mortality of model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP),chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment(CLIF-SOFA)scores,FT3-MELD model,and FT3 were evaluated.Results:The observation group had significantly lower FT3(2.79±0.71 vs.4.43±0.75 pmol/L,P<0.001)and TSH[0.618(0.186-1.185)vs.1.800(1.570-2.590)mIU/L,P<0.001],and higher FT4(19.51±6.26 vs.14.47±2.19 pmol/L,P<0.001)than the control group.NTIS was diagnosed in 49 of the patients with liver failure(67.12%).In the observation group,patients with NTIS had a higher mortality rate than those without(63.27%vs.25.00%,P=0.002).Across the whole cohort,the 3-month mortality was 50.68%.The international normalized ratios(INR)were 2.40±1.41 in survivors and 3.53±1.81 in deaths(P=0.004),the creatinine(Cr)concentrations were 73.27±36.94μmol/L and 117.08±87.98μmol/L(P=0.008),the FT3 concentrations were 3.13±0.59 pmol/L and 2.47±0.68 pmol/L(P<0.001),the MELD scores were 22.19±6.64 and 29.57±7.99(P<0.001),the CTP scores were 10.67±1.53 and 11.78±1.25(P=0.001),and the CLIF-SOFA scores were 8.42±1.68 and 10.16±2.03(P<0.001),respectively.FT3 was negatively correlated with MELD score(r=−0.430,P<0.001).An FT3-MELD model was established by subjecting FT3 concentration and MELD score to logistic regression analysis using the following formula:Logit(P)=−1.337×FT3+0.114×MELD+0.880.The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was 0.827 and the optimal cut-off value was 0.4523.The corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 67.6%and 91.7%.The areas under the ROC curve for FT3 concentration,MELD score,CTP score,and CLIF-SOFA score were 0.809,0.779,0.699,and 0.737,respectively.Conclusions:Patients with liver failure often develop NTIS.FT3-MELD score perform better than CTP and CLIF-SOFA scores in predicting mortality in patients with liver failure.Thus,the FT3-MELD model could be of great value for the evaluation of the short-term mortality of such patients.
