This study assessed the contribution of climate projections to improving rainfall information for cocoa crops in the central and southern regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Particular attention was paid to fourteen local...This study assessed the contribution of climate projections to improving rainfall information for cocoa crops in the central and southern regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Particular attention was paid to fourteen localities in these two climatic zones. Simulation data were obtained from the CORDEX ensemble and observation data from CHIRPS. They cover the period 1991-2005 for the reference period and the future period from 2021 to 2050 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study was based on the water requirements necessary during the critical phase of the cocoa tree (the flowering phase) for a good yield from the cocoa production chain on the one hand, and on a selection of three climate indices CDD, CWD and r95PTOT to study their spatio-temporal changes over two future periods 2021-2035 (near future) and 2036-2050 (medium-term) on the other. These climatic indices influence cocoa cultivation and their use in studies of climatic impacts on agriculture is of prime importance. The analysis of their spatio-temporal changes in this work also contributes to providing climate services based on rainfall, to which cocoa crops are highly sensitive. Our results show that the CDD and CWD indices vary from one region to another depending on latitude. For the fourteen localities studied, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase between now and 2050, while the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) could decrease over the period 2021-2035 and then increase over the period 2036-2050. The localities of Tabou, Aboisso and San-Pedro record high numbers of CDD index and CWD index for both projection scenarios. In comparison with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, these results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios are having an impact on cocoa growing in Côte d’Ivoire.展开更多
In the particular context of climate change in Côte d’Ivoire and the vulnerability of farmers to its effects, one of the major issues is how these changes could impact cocoa yields of cocoa production areas....In the particular context of climate change in Côte d’Ivoire and the vulnerability of farmers to its effects, one of the major issues is how these changes could impact cocoa yields of cocoa production areas. Thus, the objective of this study is to sustainably increase the resilience of all cocoa farming stakeholders to the impacts of climate change. The study was carried out in the central and southern areas of Côte d’Ivoire with a focus on eleven localities that have many communities of cocoa producers and a humid climate. The rainfall and temperature observation data using come from the CRU, they cover the historical period from 1971 to 2000 at 0.5<sup>o</sup> × 0.5<sup>o</sup> horizontal scale. As for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, they come from the CORDEX database and cover the 2021-2050 period. The methodology is based on the calculation of climatic indices sensitive to cocoa cultivation which are the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the amount of rain during the rainy season and the maximum temperature above 33℃. The results show that for all the localities studied, indices such as CDD and CWD could experience an increase. In addition, the total amount of rain during the long rainy season (April to June) is calculated on the basis of the threshold of 700 mm representing the minimum annual precipitation during the rainy season necessary for good growth of the cocoa tree. It reveals that for the two scenarios the cumulative rainfall will all be greater than 700 mm. Regarding temperatures, the central and southern areas could have a low number of hot days (temperature greater than or equal to 33℃ which is the tolerable threshold for cocoa cultivation). The eleven localities, therefore, remain favorable areas for cocoa cultivation in terms of climatic conditions based on temperature and rainfall, despite the regional dimension of the effects of climate change and the associated constraints.展开更多
文摘This study assessed the contribution of climate projections to improving rainfall information for cocoa crops in the central and southern regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Particular attention was paid to fourteen localities in these two climatic zones. Simulation data were obtained from the CORDEX ensemble and observation data from CHIRPS. They cover the period 1991-2005 for the reference period and the future period from 2021 to 2050 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study was based on the water requirements necessary during the critical phase of the cocoa tree (the flowering phase) for a good yield from the cocoa production chain on the one hand, and on a selection of three climate indices CDD, CWD and r95PTOT to study their spatio-temporal changes over two future periods 2021-2035 (near future) and 2036-2050 (medium-term) on the other. These climatic indices influence cocoa cultivation and their use in studies of climatic impacts on agriculture is of prime importance. The analysis of their spatio-temporal changes in this work also contributes to providing climate services based on rainfall, to which cocoa crops are highly sensitive. Our results show that the CDD and CWD indices vary from one region to another depending on latitude. For the fourteen localities studied, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase between now and 2050, while the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) could decrease over the period 2021-2035 and then increase over the period 2036-2050. The localities of Tabou, Aboisso and San-Pedro record high numbers of CDD index and CWD index for both projection scenarios. In comparison with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, these results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios are having an impact on cocoa growing in Côte d’Ivoire.
文摘In the particular context of climate change in Côte d’Ivoire and the vulnerability of farmers to its effects, one of the major issues is how these changes could impact cocoa yields of cocoa production areas. Thus, the objective of this study is to sustainably increase the resilience of all cocoa farming stakeholders to the impacts of climate change. The study was carried out in the central and southern areas of Côte d’Ivoire with a focus on eleven localities that have many communities of cocoa producers and a humid climate. The rainfall and temperature observation data using come from the CRU, they cover the historical period from 1971 to 2000 at 0.5<sup>o</sup> × 0.5<sup>o</sup> horizontal scale. As for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, they come from the CORDEX database and cover the 2021-2050 period. The methodology is based on the calculation of climatic indices sensitive to cocoa cultivation which are the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the amount of rain during the rainy season and the maximum temperature above 33℃. The results show that for all the localities studied, indices such as CDD and CWD could experience an increase. In addition, the total amount of rain during the long rainy season (April to June) is calculated on the basis of the threshold of 700 mm representing the minimum annual precipitation during the rainy season necessary for good growth of the cocoa tree. It reveals that for the two scenarios the cumulative rainfall will all be greater than 700 mm. Regarding temperatures, the central and southern areas could have a low number of hot days (temperature greater than or equal to 33℃ which is the tolerable threshold for cocoa cultivation). The eleven localities, therefore, remain favorable areas for cocoa cultivation in terms of climatic conditions based on temperature and rainfall, despite the regional dimension of the effects of climate change and the associated constraints.
